Garmin 2019: New Products – Forerunner 245M Fenix6 ?!? 945 ? Edge 1040 ? Speculation

chronos

NB: Chronos not F6

It’s been a good year for Garmin’s endurance tech products and a good year, financially, for the company overall. 2019 will almost certainly see this trend continue.

But exactly how? Will Garmin be selling more of the same-old, same-old, products? Or will we see more new and exciting stuff?

A: More new and exciting stuff 😉

With a tailwind and a dose of good luck, January 2020 will reveal some FCC filings showing that a Garmin Fenix 6 is to be formally announced at CES2020. But that’s quite a wait for the next iteration of their flagship product.

If you want to look at predictions beyond 2019, then look at the latest post listed in this list here (link to: the5krunner.com).

    • Vivoactive 3 Plus or “DragonFlyM” /WearOS – Due January 2019 – probability – 100% VA3 LTE version announced
    • Forerunner 245 & Forerunner 245 Music – Due Q2 – probability 99% SOON
    • Fenix 6 – Due Q4.2019/Q1.2020 – the probability of the latter date 80%
    • Forerunner 945 – Due Q2.2019 – probability 99%.
    • Forerunner 745XT – Due 2019 – probability 30%. Apparently this update to the triathlon range has been held back
    • Edge 830 or Edge 1040 – 830 is Over Due Q2/Q3.2019 – probability – 40%
    • Edge MTB – New Product – probability 30%
    • Edge 530 – Over Due Q1.2019 – probability – 20%
    • Forerunner 45 &/or Forerunner 45Music – Due – probability – 10%

edit: Mar 2019

Garmin Forerunner 245 Music & Garmin Forerunner 245 – Almost Here, “Speculation”

Commentary:

  • The Fenix 6 is a certainty. It’s just “when?” it will happen that is the question.
  • The 945 will be the top-end triathlon watch built for sport. Although technically the MARQ ATHLETE may superior
  • With the Garmin MARQ Athlete we have seen sport-focussed CHRONOS 2. This is NOT the 935 replacement. That will come this year too and it WILL be more sensibly priced for the masses.
  • The 245/245M each represent a product that would represent a potentially great seller in a significant part of the market. I am surprised that this has not already been released in 2018. But consider that Garmin may well be releasing a new WearOS watch to fit precisely in the 245/245M space. It will certainly be priced at LEAST somewhere around the $/£/Eu300+ mark. That’s easily Forerunner 245 Music territory. However the 245 and 245M are ‘easy adds’ to the existing Garmin range rather than a ‘special project’ like a WearOS watch. This is going to be the one that releases first and, indeed, it’s likely that these two models were the ones pulled by Garmin from a CES2019 launch.
  • A mid-range tri watch, the 745XT, is by no means a certainty. It represents Garmin’s entry-level multisport watch but it is also a watch which would sit firmly in the mid-market of pricing when compared to other products. Producing a 945 could see the 935 slip back in price to effectively become the 735XT replacement in the mid-market gap. Such a move could be devastating for Garmin’s competition BUT devastating also to Garmin’s new 945 through cannibalization of sales. #Dilema
  • Edge MTB – I reckon the Garmin Instinct (cheap Fenix) signals that Garmin wants to also hit new market segments. The MTB/trail market is the obvious one for a ruggedized, tailored and/or cut-down Edge 520 Plus
  • Edge 530 was due in 2018. The Edge 130 and 520 Plus products that we have now probably reflected the equivalent product. In fact, reports I had in 2017 were of the 530, so maybe Garmin just decided to stick with the 520’s branding and hence the Edge 520 Plus – the 520 is a HIGHLY respected product.
  • The high-end Edge products need to take another step forward, perhaps by including an eSIM or video capability. An Edge 1040 will happen at some point and an Edge 830 probably will not be too far behind.
  • Forerunner 45 &/or45M – will Garmin even bother in this space? Is the cheaper, Far Eastern competition too much to deal with? I don’t know the answer to the economics behind that. But I do know that Garmin’s CIQ music offering on a 45M would be a big seller..shame the 35 is not a CIQ product :-(, CIQ will likely never exist in that price bracket for a Garmin. Plus, at the lower price points, much of the competition to Garmin offer clearly better watches. eg Amazfit STRATOS and Forerunner 35 can sometimes have the same price.
  • NOTE WELL Hint there won’t be a 935 Plus, nor a 945 nor a 745XT…Garmin will introduce 2 or 3 rebranded tri-specific products. I reckon. they will be effectively the same thing as updated versions of those old models but with a different name consistent with a triathlon sub-brand. This could be a very, very, very (did I say VERY?) exciting event for 2019. It makes me poor just thnking about what I am going to have to do about it! (buy all of them)
  • I was surprised to see the MARQ which is effectively Chronos 2. I underestimated the success of the pseudo-luxury end of the sports watch market where Garmin competes with itself. The poll below shows that (15 MArch) only 3.22% of you expected the MARQ/Chronos 2…looks like my underestimation was shared by you all 😉
  • Others – there will be other products and other variants. I’m less interested in products like a Vivomove. Vector 4 will happen at some point too, maybe not 2019. Relatively new products like Vivoactive 3 series will not be superseded by a VA4 yet, that will be for 2020.

Your Thoughts Welcomed Below and Your Votes too. Remember to vote on what you think WILL HAPPEN and not what you would LIKE to happen.

 

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Zoser
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Zoser

There is a confirmation from FCC that something new comes on the way from Garmin. And everything points to what could be the first Garmin with WearOS and also with NFC and LTE. It’s a bit scary thing that they may focus it more on the casual market than the high-performance sports one so as not to compete with their other watches. But … if it really was a watch with WearOS … I’m sure that it would only be a matter of time that its apps from the developer community surpassed those of Garmin for all kinds of measurements with the sensors that the clock incorporates. Another thing will be the subject of the battery, but the LTE, bluetooth, optical heart rate sensor and GPS can be switched off at convenience. I see it as an intelligent movement. Now that there is a fine line between a smartwatch and a sports watch, better than when it breaks, you are the one who crosses it and the one who sells that watch. Will it has all the sensors? Will they remove something like Ant + to avoid overlapping or stepping on other products it from other products? Not sure if… Read more »

chris
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chris

Fenix 6 – Due Q4.2019/Q1.2020 – the probability of the latter date 80%
Forerunner 945 – Due Q1/Q2.2019 – probability 70%

Do you think that 935 successor will be no longer “plastic” Fenix? I thought that new Forerunner 945 will be released few weeks after Fenix 6.

The Ref
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The Ref

I was having a look through the 735 and the 935 features, there doesn’t seem like an awful lot of a difference? Barometer is the main thing I would like from the 935 (I have the 735), but otherwise it looks pretty similar.

That would lead me to think they will just remove 735 form the line up, and as you say, the 935 slips back to fill the gap. They probably cover the cannibalisation of this by the fact the 945 will have music and other Fenix Plus type features?

On a side note, I had was trying the Polar Vantage. Thought it was a nice bit of hardware, but so far behind Garmin in features/usability to not be a viable alternative, imo.

Soap
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Soap

IMHO one of the larger distinctions between them is the improved HR sensor on the 935 which not only does a better job of tracking all day (and resting HR) but also opens up 5 new Firstbeat metrics: Anaerobic Training Effect, Training Load, Training Status, FTP calculation, and All-day Stress & Recovery only came with the Fenix 5 generation devices and not the Fenix 3 generation of devices.

With the 735/235/F3 there really isn’t a good actionable recovery condition metric. Recovery Adviser doesn’t appear to be more than a definite integral of the single activity’s HR graph, and as such doesn’t take into account other activities or notice if you recover faster than predicted.

Peter
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Peter

What about quatix ?

Justin
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Justin

Wow, I disagree with a bunch of your estimates. I did a double take at them because I initially thought I read it wrong. Unless you’re getting some internal information from Garmin, nearly every watch you have listed for Q4 seems wrong. The Fenix 6 by the end of next year? Really? I get they just put out the 5+ line, but that should have no impact on the timetable for the new Fenix for CES 2019 and a late Q1/Q2 launch at all. The 5+ line wouldn’t even have existed hate Garmin not messed up the 5 line in the first place. Garmin’s release schedule also denotes the eminent announcement at CES of at least the next full gen of watches including the 935 replacement and the Fenix 6. Granted not every watch gets that treatment, but the big ones? I’d be shocked if both aren’t included with the CES announcement especially with Polar having the Vantage out in a sector that Garmin is now the old kid on the block. Not to mention the potential of diversifying all of these watches within the same brand to focus on aspects of function rather than having physical differences. What’s to… Read more »

Peter
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Peter

So no Forerunner 945 and no Fenix 6 at CES 2019! I have the Fenix 5x, the optical HR is broken and the bezel is scratched from a bike crash. I don’t want to Upgrade to a Fenix 5x plus because its nearly the same as the 5x and i don’t want to buy a new watch when in a few month a new watch will be announced.
Is there a chance that the fenix 6 will be announced befor CES 2020?

Thomas
Guest

Hi! When you look on this site (https://buy.garmin.com/de-DE/DE/c10002-p2.html), the gentleman on the bottom of the site wears an interesting (new?) device. It has the form of fenix 5X Plus but the colour is silver and the 5X Plus is not available in silver. Do we see here a leak of a new fenix (6 or Chronos) or am I totally wrong?