Garmin 2019: New Products Speculation – Fenix6 ?!? 945 ? Edge 1040 ?

chronos

NB: Chronos not F6

It’s been a good year for Garmin’s endurance tech products and a good year, financially, for the company overall. 2019 will almost certainly see this trend continue.

But exactly how? Will Garmin be selling more of the same-old, same-old, products? Or will we see more new and exciting stuff?

A: More new and exciting stuff 😉

With a tailwind and a dose of good luck, December 2019 will reveal some FCC filings showing that a Garmin Fenix 6 is to be formally announced at CES2020. But Santa might, just might, get his act together in time for Christmas 2019. C’mon Santa!!

As of 27 Nov 2018, the latest predictions for 2019 are listed here in this post. If you want to see the revised predictions as they change throughout 2019 OR to look at predictions beyond 2019, then look at the latest post listed in this list here (link to: the5krunner.com).

 

    • Vivoactive 3 Plus or “DragonFlyM” /WearOS – Due January 2019 – probability – 95%
    • Fenix 6 – Due Q4.2019/Q1.2020 – the probability of the latter date 80%
    • Forerunner 935 Plus/945/645Triathlon – Due Q1/Q2.2019 – probability 70%
    • Forerunner 745XT – Due 2019 – probability 50%
    • Edge 830 or Edge 1040 – Due Q2/Q3.2019 – probability – 40%
    • Edge MTB – New Product – probability 30%
    • Forerunner 245 & Forerunner 245 Music – Due – probability 25%
    • Edge 530 – Due Q1.2019 – probability – 20%
    • Forerunner 45 &/or Forerunner 45Music – Due – probability – 10%

Commentary:

  • The Fenix 6 is a certainty. It’s just “when?” it will happen that is the question.
  • The 935Plus/945/645Triathlon represent the same product. I’m just not sure how it will be precisely named and positioned. Either way it will be the top-end triathlon watch.
  • The 245/245M each represent a product that would represent a potentially good seller in a significant part of the market. I am surprised that this has not already been released in 2018. But consider that Garmin may well be releasing a new WearOS watch to fit precisely in the 245/245M space. It will certainly be priced at LEAST somewhere around the $/£/Eu300+ mark. That’s easily 245 Music territory
  • A mid-range tri watch, the 745XT, is by no means a certainty. It represents Garmin’s entry-level multisport watch but it is also a watch which would sit firmly in the mid-market of pricing when compared to other products. Producing a 945 could see the 935 slip back in price to effectively become the 735XT replacement in the mid-market gap. Such a move could be devastating for Garmin’s competition BUT devastating also to Garmin’s new 945 through cannibalization of sales. #Dilema
  • Edge MTB – I reckon the Garmin Instinct (cheap Fenix) signals that Garmin want to also hit new markets. The MTB/trail market is the obvious one for a ruggedized and/or cut-down Edge 520 Plus
  • Edge 530 was due in 2018. The Edge 130 and 520 Plus products that we have now probably reflected the equivalent product. In fact reports I had were of the 530, so maybe Garmin just decided to stick with the 520’s branding – the 520 is a HIGHLY respected product.
  • The high-end Edge products need to take another step forward, perhaps by including an eSIM or video capability. An Edge 1040 will happen at some point and an Edge 830 probably will not be too far behind.
  • Forerunner 45 &/or45M – will Garmin even bother in this space? Is the cheaper, Far Eastern competition too much to deal with? I don’t know the answer to the economics behind that. But I do know that Garmin’s CIQ music offering on a 45M would be a big seller..shame the 35 is not a CIQ product :-(, so CIQ might never exist in that price bracket for a Garmin.
  • (Hint there won’t be a 935 Plus, nor a 945 nor a 745XT…Garmin will introduce 2 or 3 rebranded tri-specific products. I reckon. they will be effectively the same thing but with a different name).
  • Others – there will be other products and other variants. I’m less interested in products like a Vivomove or Chronos 2. Whilst I think the Vivomove range will continue, there is a good possibility that the Chronos ship has long since sailed. Vector 4 will happen at some point too, maybe not 2019. Relatively new products like Vivoactive 3 series will not be superceded by a VA4 yet, that will be for 2020.

Your Thoughts Welcomed Below and Your Votes too

 

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Zoser
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Zoser

There is a confirmation from FCC that something new comes on the way from Garmin. And everything points to what could be the first Garmin with WearOS and also with NFC and LTE. It’s a bit scary thing that they may focus it more on the casual market than the high-performance sports one so as not to compete with their other watches. But … if it really was a watch with WearOS … I’m sure that it would only be a matter of time that its apps from the developer community surpassed those of Garmin for all kinds of measurements with the sensors that the clock incorporates. Another thing will be the subject of the battery, but the LTE, bluetooth, optical heart rate sensor and GPS can be switched off at convenience. I see it as an intelligent movement. Now that there is a fine line between a smartwatch and a sports watch, better than when it breaks, you are the one who crosses it and the one who sells that watch. Will it has all the sensors? Will they remove something like Ant + to avoid overlapping or stepping on other products it from other products? Not sure if… Read more »

chris
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chris

Fenix 6 – Due Q4.2019/Q1.2020 – the probability of the latter date 80%
Forerunner 935 Plus/945/645Triathlon – Due Q1/Q2.2019 – probability 70%

Do you think that 935 successor will be no longer “plastic” Fenix? I thought that new Forerunner 945 will be released few weeks after Fenix 6.

The Ref
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The Ref

I was having a look through the 735 and the 935 features, there doesn’t seem like an awful lot of a difference? Barometer is the main thing I would like from the 935 (I have the 735), but otherwise it looks pretty similar.

That would lead me to think they will just remove 735 form the line up, and as you say, the 935 slips back to fill the gap. They probably cover the cannibalisation of this by the fact the 945 will have music and other Fenix Plus type features?

On a side note, I had was trying the Polar Vantage. Thought it was a nice bit of hardware, but so far behind Garmin in features/usability to not be a viable alternative, imo.

Soap
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Soap

IMHO one of the larger distinctions between them is the improved HR sensor on the 935 which not only does a better job of tracking all day (and resting HR) but also opens up 5 new Firstbeat metrics: Anaerobic Training Effect, Training Load, Training Status, FTP calculation, and All-day Stress & Recovery only came with the Fenix 5 generation devices and not the Fenix 3 generation of devices.

With the 735/235/F3 there really isn’t a good actionable recovery condition metric. Recovery Adviser doesn’t appear to be more than a definite integral of the single activity’s HR graph, and as such doesn’t take into account other activities or notice if you recover faster than predicted.

Peter
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Peter

What about quatix ?

Justin
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Justin

Wow, I disagree with a bunch of your estimates. I did a double take at them because I initially thought I read it wrong. Unless you’re getting some internal information from Garmin, nearly every watch you have listed for Q4 seems wrong. The Fenix 6 by the end of next year? Really? I get they just put out the 5+ line, but that should have no impact on the timetable for the new Fenix for CES 2019 and a late Q1/Q2 launch at all. The 5+ line wouldn’t even have existed hate Garmin not messed up the 5 line in the first place. Garmin’s release schedule also denotes the eminent announcement at CES of at least the next full gen of watches including the 935 replacement and the Fenix 6. Granted not every watch gets that treatment, but the big ones? I’d be shocked if both aren’t included with the CES announcement especially with Polar having the Vantage out in a sector that Garmin is now the old kid on the block. Not to mention the potential of diversifying all of these watches within the same brand to focus on aspects of function rather than having physical differences. What’s to… Read more »