Garmin Fenix 8 For September? (Epix 3)
2023 should mark ‘Peak Fenix‘. The point after which meaningful improvement is going to be difficult.
Here are some thoughts on why we will see Fenix 8 in September and what new features it might have.
Edit: These new products were released as Garmin Fenix 7 Pro and Garmin Epix 2 Pro – Garmin opted for the PRO version rather than calling them version 8. Fenix 8/Epix 3 will not be released until Sep 2024 at the earliest.
why September?
It looks like 3 consecutively numbered watches with WiFi are already registered on the FCC with a Go-Public date currently set for early September 2023. I originally thought this could be a flavour of Instinct 2, but that seems unlikely on reflection.
An 18-month, or lower, refresh is perfectly plausible as the following table indicates
Model(s) | Announced |
---|---|
Fenix | July 10, 2012 |
Fenix 2 | February 20, 2014 |
Fenix 3 | January 5, 2015 |
Fenix 3 HR | January 5, 2016 |
Fenix Chronos | August 25, 2016 |
Fenix 5 | January 4, 2017 |
Fenix 5 Plus | June 18, 2018 |
Fenix 6 | August 29, 2019 |
Fenix 7 and Epix Gen 2 | January 18, 2022 |
Edit: These will now be released earlier than I anticipated on 31 May 2023.
@Flo has received intel that IPH-A04595, IPH-A04597 and IPH-A04597 refer to three versions of the Epix 2 PLUS, presumably small medium, and large.
2024: new Garmin Endurance Sports Technologies for GPS Watches & Bike Computers Trends
What Models?
The obvious and most likely answer is that we will see the Garmin Fenix 8, 8s and 8x.
However, the Epix is the spanner in the works. When the Fenix 7 was launched we also saw the Epix 2 successfully released at the same time. Epix and Fenix are pretty much identical apart from the AMOLED screen on the Epix and the battery hit that comes with it.
- Option 1: We just get a single Epix 3 at the same time as Fenix 8 series. The Epix 3 is not yet listed on the FCC.
- Option 2: We get an entire range of Epix 3, 3s and 3X. the Fenix range has not yet been listed (but will be) – this is my hopeful bet
- Option 3: Fenix is discontinued or scaled back in some way. The registered watches are just the Epix models and the Fenix is not yet registered on the FCC.
I’ve already outlined some time ago that AMOLED is the future of Garmin watches and that non-AMOLED watches with awesome battery lives will be relegated to more niche, ‘true-pro’ usage. I see no reason to change this view, it’s just the timing and the current sales levels that we need to know.
My guess is that Fenix 8 will still be the most commercially important model for Garmin but the market will have notably shifted for Fenix 9 (2025), partly because of people becoming more aware of Epix and partly because some people upgrade every alternate model.
I previously suspected that we would see Epix 2s and 2x relatively soon and that the Fenix 8 would materialise in January 2024. I think the moment has now passed for Epix 2x and 2s and they will materialise alongside a Fenix 8.
Caution: The FCC documents suggest a watch that is thinner than we would expect from a Fenix/Epix
What New Hardware Tech
We could be due another iteration this year of ELEVATE oHR but perhaps not the AIROHA GNSS chipset. I will nuance that by saying that GNSS chipsets are frequently iterated on a small scale to the extent that it is likely that the Fenix 7 (seven) will have, maybe, 3 minor iterations of the AIROHA chip that are silently updated in new production runs. Anyway, I only expect Fenix 8 to also have a minor iteration, perhaps with some tiny improvements in accuracy or power consumption alongside.
It’s also likely there will be a slightly better battery, a slightly better accelerometer and so on. Again, modest improvements to existing sensor types will probably go unannounced.
The problem for Garmin is that they are running out of new sensors and hardware features to include. I can’t see the next generation of biometric sensors being ready this year or next (2024) to give us blood pressure, lactate, and glucose non-invasively from the wrist. That will come on Fenix 9/Epix 4 (2025).
So, somewhat boringly, that means Garmin can only give us some combination of LTE (Phone-free internet access on the move), ECG/EKG and mic/Speaker.
Finally, it’s also possible we will see QI/Wireless charging as Garmin has already started to move on that tech with other of its devices (Vivomove Trend).
Let’s face it. That might not be enough to get you to upgrade to a smarter watch, you probably want a sportier watch. So there must be some significant new sports/adventure features.
New Fenix/Epix Feature SETS
The possible themes include these
- Greater Connectivity – Use LTE+onboard MIC/SPK to deliver a true smartwatch experience that can stream music and make/take voice calls. (See here, this is HARD for Garmin to accomplish)
- Greater Collaborative location sharing – I’m envisaging sharing locations better over LTE during a race and during a group exercise, sharing sensor & performance data rather than just sharing location eg sharing Varia-detected vehicle locations with a group and sharing your %HR or %FTP with a group for motivational/competitive purposes…that kind of thing
- Next-gen Physiology – I’ll expand on this
Next Gen Physiology AI
Garmin/Firstbeat has probably taken current sensor data about as far as it can for the current level it’s at. By that, I mean that readiness/sleep/recovery/load is mostly finished. There could be a few more tweaks like determining LT1 via dfa a1 but that’s hardly a marketing headline that will push the sale of a million Epix 3 watches!
The next leap forwards could be with offline AI models that tweak training plans and recommendations based on your previous responses to training stimuli like AIEndurance and/or comparable peer-group responses to training stimuli (Suunto Movescount used to do this but not AI). Online models could intelligently adjust your targets as you progress through your workout.
Perhaps wellness data and activity levels could also provide interesting prompts for an AI and deliver new performance insight if incorporated with training data.
This would create a good marketing story and good headlines but I’m not convinced, strangely, how important training prescription is to the masses. Let alone AI intelligent training prescription. Then again, people want SpO2, ECG and Sleep Stages…#Shrug
Take Out
I sense that I haven’t convinced you that there is any kind of major leap forward in Fenix-tech here. I haven’t convinced myself either and am struggling to see meaningful step-change improvements that can be made.
Sure there can always be minor, incremental improvements and more robustness to existing features.
This brings me back to the first line of the article. IE we are approaching ‘Peak Fenix’. Maybe Fenix 7/Epix 2 already represent the Peak?
We will not know the peak until after we passed it, but I tend to think that F7 or F8 are definitely the peak.
OTOH, I’m still not sure about Epix. Shinier watch is not really appealing. LTE would be different, agreed.
We should also expect wireless charging. At least I am.
I am still on Fenix 6 and find the Fenix 7/epix 2 to not be worth the upgrade. I surely hope, that Fenix 8/epix 3 will be.
yeah, that’s a good one. I’ll add that and claim your foresight as mine 😉 (hope you don’t mind)
Not at all 🙂
Connectivity is one thing, having microphone/speaker (with BT of-course) is other.
Personally, I do not care much for LTE (I assume to bring my phone with me 99% of use cases), but ability to use its capabilities (calls, voice assistant) without picking it from my backpack, bag, without need to stop on bike, kayak, etc – it is something I’m really looking forward to.
Also, assuming these are Epix 3 devices – I truly hope they will bring bigger screen size (Epix 3X?) and carry over the LED torch.
Wireless charging would be nice as well.
This exactly. Skip the lte, speaker so I can just tuck my phone away. Fenix with ekg and a speaker, I would be tempted.
I expect a unified body design like Apple Watch ultra which also has good dual-frequency GPS with a unified titanium body instead of sanwich design. Right, the highest end Garmin watch already has it…
What AI are you talking about…
Garmin can’t make watches with decent oHR sensors. Even Apple, Huawei, and Oura have more accurate oHR sensors.
Garmin’s respiratory rate algorithm is garbage.
I’ve added a link to AI Endurance as an example.
Oura oHR is NOT more accurate than Garmin. Period.
oHR quality is dependent upon many factors. I continually say that on this site. Indeed the oHR I get from Garmin isn’t as good as, say, that which dcrainmaker gets (I’m not saying he’s wrong just that quality varies based on physiology, usage and environment).
No LTE for these three watches and, it seems, no wireless charging (as no test reports for wireless power transfer exist atm).
I hope this will be added but I highly doubt that.
All three Filings are with exactly the same internals (screen and case size might differ, this is not in the available files so far), so it seems three different sizes of the same watch (Epix or Fenix).
Also no clue for the screen technology in the files.
Patiently waiting for an Epix with the FR965 screen and LTE (just for being in reachable when running without my phone). I’d buy that on launch day! 🙂
A flashlight would be nice too!
As you mentioned theres still sweat analysis, glucose monitoring, on-device ML based recommendations which take hundreds of parameters and compare these against lifestyle and fitness models. We’ll likely also see various sensors which assist the watch in providing real time recommendations around movement and output for a whole range of sports. We’re at the very beginning of all of this.
yes, we have to wonder if the watch has the spare processing power to do ML stuff in realtime when it only seems to have enough resources to allow us to have two CIQ DFs. https://the5krunner.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=80295&action=edit
there is lactate and ketones and other stuff that will also come on the sensing fronts.
i don’t think garmin will do sweat analysis tho…just a feeling. at least not in-house.
Fenix7 can not be the peak because Garmin itself has a lot of tech still pending to be added to their flagships.
ECG, wireless charging, LTE, etc.
It also has to catch up with competition with blood pressure, skin temperature, etc.
After the peak, industry will fall in the same practice that smartphones. Bigger screen, pointless changing design, etc.
agreed(ish )
i’m not sure the current omissions, that are on other garmin watches, meaningfully improve the watch tho (for its intended target audience). I guess LTE should be able to add quite a lot but not how garmin have implemented lte so far.
CORE TEMP, lactate, ketone and glucose would be meaningful additions. blood pressure and skin temp less so.
I think IPH-A04595-97 FCC items are not Fenix/Epix watches. The frequency for GarminPay (NFC, 13.56 MHz) is missing in the Operating Frequencies section – if it is not intentional.
Its there
WiFi (DTS): 2412-2462MHz
BT/BLE/ANT: 2402-2480MHz
NFC: 13.56MHz
A new fenix without amoled when even the mid range sport watch has amoled? I don’t think so. More so because I think the fenix is more a lifestyle watch (like SUVs that never leave the tarmac)
If I may speculate, the fenix 8 is a minor upgrade with just a pretty screen added. Just like the fr965. New sensors can be added to a new epix, to make that stand out more (read: make it more expensive)
More like the Epix is the SUV watch, as the Fenix (since the 2) has been always pushed to the hikers.ultra runners
No Fenix 8/Epix 3 but Fenix 7/Epix 2 PRO.
or a 7 plus…who knows the naming convention
The fenix Chronos was really the progenitor of the Marq range and was internally an early revision of the fenix 5 architecture. But otherwise from the fenix 3 on there has been a tick-tock release history with a major “tick”revision about every 2 years and a minor “tock” revision in between.
The tick and tock revisions have been all been stocked and sold simultaneously by Garmin.
Fenix 3 2015 Jan -> Fenix 3 HR 2016 Jan
Fenix 5X 2017 Jan -> Fenix 5 plus 2018 Jun (battery bump, pulse ox, music)
Fenix 6X 2019 Aug -> Enduro 2021 Feb (battery bump)
Fenix 7X 2022 Jan -> Enduro 2 2022 Aug (battery bump)
The enduro branding is a good way to differentiate something with very minor changes for a $100 upsell.
In the original case size, now X, all of the tock minor revisions included improved battery range if you consider the enduro.
The smallest change over the original design is the enduro 2 which is literally a different flashlight lens, a larger battery, and a different color treatment.
The fenix has a focus on range and the epix has a focus on display — especially for the map detail.
The epix gen 2 pro appears to be a minor revision of the epix gen 2.
Maybe it is a little strained, but the enduro 2 seems like the minor revision to the fenix 7X.
If that is the case we can expect a fenix 8 in January 2024.
From a hardware perspective the meaningful improvements Garmin can make to the fenix and epix:
– faster, lower power ARM cortex processor
– larger display
– better display (more color depth and pixel density transflective displays, brighter or lower power transmissive displays)
– more battery range ☢️
– lighter / smaller case
– better oHR sensor (either more accurate or lower power or both)
– better pulseox (either more accurate or lower power or both)
– new sensors (core body temp, ECG, optical blood glucose)
– better GNSS
– better compass
– better multi-axis motion sensor
– better barometric altimeter
– better materials (incl. buttons and gaskets)
– better solar charging
– LTE data and calling
– Iridium and Globalstar satellite data
– microphone and speaker like Apple Watch
– updated industrial design (mostly a new bezel design)
An ECG reading is the only thing that is missing on the Fenix 7 for me. It’s on Apple and Samsung watches, why not Garmin?
My most needed new Fenix feature is continious AFib monitoring with connection to doctor for review. I can also use blood pressure monitoring. I would love to have Garmin work with my Nordic Track stationary bike to capture and record workout data from their Ifit program.Also capture and integrate data from blood pressure monitors and use that in Garmin sports and advice algos. My vision for the watch of the future more tightly integrate health metrics with the doctors office, where Garmin make the data helpful to the doctors, not just the watch customers.
from memory Apple has stated a policy similar to that
i dont recall seeing garmin do the same. you might be able to link blood pressure from some sensors, i have an old ANT+ one from A&D and there might be some CIQ apps that work with certain BP monitors.
Garmin makes a blood pressure cuff (Index BPM) that automatically uploads the data to your Connect account and makes the data available for your doctor. Admittedly, it doesn’t really integrate it with other data, but I digress.
Novità?
no