Apple Watch Sales Fall Reported in Quarterly Earning Call – Q3.2024 Earnings results are in.

In its latest earnings report and analyst presentations, Apple revealed that its Wearables, Home, and Accessories category was the only segment to experience a year-over-year revenue decline. Sales for this category reached $9 billion in Q4, marking a 3% decrease from last year’s $9.3 billion. For fiscal 2024, wearables category revenue closed at $37 billion, a dip from $39.9 billion in fiscal 2023.

However, the dip in revenue does not tell the whole story. Apple Watch is only part of this category, albeit a significant part. Apple further reported that the Apple Watch install base reached a new all-time high, with over half of customers purchasing an Apple Watch for the first time.

Take Out

Care needs to be taken when extrapolating from Apple’s statements; its phraseology is carefully crafted.

Nevertheless, Apple Watch sales, excluding the rest of the category, likely fell compared to the same quarter in the prior year, which is not great. However, some sales could be deferred to this quarter (or not) for effects linked to Christmas and Black Friday.

The only ‘fact’ is that Apple reports over half the purchasers of Watch were first-timers, which is a significant positive. Remember that there was no new SE or Ultra model this year, which would have adversely impacted the number of new sales. Also, it is reasonable to assume that most Watch owners upgrade every four or so years, and that will be people upgrading from Watch 6 (2020). Watch 6 was effectively the start of the current tech generation of the most modern Watches, and there is much less on offer to tempt an upgrade from Watch 6 and newer – other than a battery reaching the end of its life and the replacement cost, perhaps being the only logical reason making a trade-in-upgrade a sensible move.

Also, Apple’s other categories defy analysts’ initial beliefs about Apple Intelligence (AI). At the latest iPhone launch, analysts were sceptical that AI would start a new supercycle of sales when, in fact, that is precisely what appeared to happen – why I upgraded my iPhone, for example. Apple Watch does not currently have AI capabilities, although it can show notifications that AI drives on the iPhone.

The new S10 SiP was engineered to achieve a thinner profile, and designed for performance, power efficiency, and intelligence. The S10 SiP and built-in 4-core Neural Engine allow for intelligent features users rely on every day, including the double tap gesture, on-device Siri, dictation, and automatic workout detection; important safety features such as Crash Detection and Fall Detection; and the updated Smart Stack, the redesigned Photos face, and the Translate app in watchOS 11. [Apple]

Q3.2025 will almost certainly see a Watch 11 and Ultra 3, probably also a next-gen SE. The accompanying S11 SiP may contain ML/AI features (I wouldn’t bet on it). Either way that all adds together to make next year’s Q3 more likely to be a significantly bigger quarter for the Wearables team.

This starkly contrasts with a bumper financial quarter by Garmin, driven by burgeoning Fenix 8 sales. Is the sports/smart watch market growing…or not?