Apple Watch – Possible changes to release schedules

If there was one certainty in life, it was that the Apple Watch would get a new model next September. Another related certainty was that Watch OS would creep up to the next numbered version. That’s already changed with watchOS 26.

What’s also changing are the release schedules of iPhones, some of which are moving away from September.

This short article looks at the likely impact of the widely reported iPhone release date changes on Apple’s Watch lineup for the next three years.

iPhone Expectations Recap

Here’s what to expect with iPhone releases over the next 18 months. The key thing to notice here is that 2025 will be ‘normal’, but the base model iPhone 18 will slip from the Fall/Autumn schedule to the following year.

• September 2025: iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Slim, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max.
• Spring 2026: iPhone 17e. 
• September 2026: Foldable iPhone (iPhone 18 Flip), iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and iPhone 18 Slim. 
• Spring 2027: iPhone 18 and iPhone 18e

It seems ‘cheap’ iPhones will be delayed for a Spring release. OK, a $1000 iPhone isn’t cheap or affordable, but try to think of it that way for a minute.

The business rationale here for Apple is probably that its newest tech is more likely to be bought by less price-sensitive early adopters. They will pay full whack for any new model with genuinely new tech, so milk them as much as possible.

Although we may not like that rationale, I admit it makes sense from a financial perspective. Apple probably is doing it for a reason linked to that but will be couching the move with more diplomatic language.

With the assumption that Spring is for budget models, let’s see how that might affect Apple Watch releases.

Apple Watch release history

The history shows a new Watch every year, a likely 2-3 year cycle for the SE and Ultra Series.

Apple Watch Naming and Differentiation

I suspect the Watch SE model will become an ‘e’ model, which aligns with the iPhone naming.

Why?

A: The SE or SE Gen 2 naming convention is confusing, so moving to an ‘e’ model suffix makes sense. However, it might only make perfect sense as part of an annual cycle. Consider: Watch 11e followed 2 years later by 13e. This might leave some wondering why there wasn’t a 12e.

There are longstanding leaks that Watch SE will next iterate in a cheaper plastic-like case alongside key aspects of its tech stack using previous-gen components. However, that strategy is tricky to make work from now on – e.g., previously having an always-on display on Watch but not on Watch SE was a clear differentiator. There is undoubtedly no option in the future other than to have an Always-On screen for every model. So the only apparent component differentiation will be the processor, optical sensor, and case material.

The Watch Ultra naming and differentiation make sense to me. A rarely commented point is that Watch 9 Stainless Steel/LTE( or 10 Titanium) is near-identical in capabilities and price to Watch Ultra 2, the shell and battery life are obvious differentiators and the dual-band GPS on the Ultra is a differentiator for a small number who might notice that difference. Ultra 3 should get ‘interesting’ when we look at new sensors, satellite connectivity, and 5G, but that is for another article.

Apple Watch Future Release Schedules

Like 2022, we might get a bumper Watch release of all three key tiers in September this year. Apple Watch sales have declined recently, and Apple will be desperate to reverse that Division’s financial fortunes. That said, releasing Watch 11e alongside iPhone 17e in 2026 makes more sense.

Take Out

Thoughts welcomed. I suspect reality will pan out similarly to what I outlined above.

As consumers, we might want the choice of all models simultaneously. However, from Apple’s perspective, it will want to maximise profits and not hack off loyal customers too much. Delaying the cheaper models makes sense. But it also makes sense if you consider how that spreads marketing and production efforts over the year. Can you imagine the monumental task of simultaneously having SE 2, Watch Ultra and Watch 8 ready for sale?

What strikes me as odd is how several companies (eg Wahoo) seek to replace a given model with a new one but keep the same name. For example, Watch SE and Watch SE Gen 2 are called Watch SE. Wahoo Roam and Roam 2 are both called Wahoo Roam. As a reviewer, I know the SEO issues surrounding that; clearly, Apple doesn’t. Owners looking to resell those models after a few years will also perhaps overlook potentially unhappy buyers buying a different model from the one they expected, based on the listing title. And so on…

Despite tech maturing, many more goodies can still be added. There are a few more good years left in sports and smart tech. Stay tuned.