Apple Watch ULTRA 3 vs Garmin Fenix 9 – What headline tech might 2025 bring?

The stage is set for 2025-26, with exciting developments ahead for wearables. This site has highlighted the likelihood of Garmin introducing a Fenix model with MicroLED screen technology in 2025. Meanwhile, recent leaks from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman suggest Apple is gearing up to include satellite messaging and hypertension monitoring features in its devices next year.

Here, my focus is on making accurate predictions rather than indulging in speculation about Apple unveiling ten revolutionary technologies every September. While such imaginings are entertaining, I find greater satisfaction in being right. However, predicting, extrapolating, and guessing the future of tech is challenging. Yet, it’s often possible to identify the broad adoption patterns of specific technologies, even if pinpointing the exact timing remains elusive.

General State of Tech Components Cycles

I won’t dwell on this for too long, but we’re at a fascinating juncture in wearable tech. One wave of innovation is maturing, while another is poised to take over. For instance, dual-frequency, multi-constellation GNSS chipsets have delivered almost everything wearables need regarding positioning accuracy. Similarly, optical heart rate monitoring on the wrist has reached a level of precision sufficient for raw HR and HRV data capture.

Looking ahead, the next wave of advancements includes the following:

• MicroLED displays: Now in production, these offer physical flexibility, enhanced brightness, and significant energy savings.
• Solid-state batteries: These promise higher energy density for longer-lasting power.
• Low Earth orbit satellites: They enable global data coverage beyond cellular range.
• Next-gen NIRS optical sensors: These will provide new sensing capabilities and deeper insights into blood flow.
• 5G and WiFi7: These combine to give many people access to faster internet services.

The future is shaping up to bring transformative improvements across multiple fronts.

Why Are Wearable Companies Interested?

It’s all about money and customer needs/wants.

Several of the technologies mentioned earlier aim to address key consumer demands. For instance, battery life remains a top priority—Apple Watch users consistently rank it as their most requested improvement. A significant leap in battery performance would likely trigger a wave of lucrative upgrades. With Apple’s wearables division seeing slower growth, the pressure is on, but the company will be cautious to ensure they deliver tech that works.

Enhanced connectivity is another driver, enabling wearables to function in more remote or off-grid locations. This is especially relevant for safety and tracking features, which resonate strongly with outdoor adventurers and fitness enthusiasts.

Additionally, new medical technologies that provide deeper insights into health conditions will be a game-changer, driving sales volumes as consumers seek ways to boost their healthspan.

Ultimately, wearable companies must continuously innovate to give customers compelling reasons to upgrade. Apple and Garmin face subtly different challenges here, but both strive to balance evolutionary improvements with first-adopter status.

Likely Directions

Wearable brands are increasingly eager to embrace technological advancements, with a particular focus on those that improve battery performance—a universal benefit for all smartwatch models.

Satellite connectivity, while invaluable in regions with limited cellular infrastructure, is gaining traction in the lucrative first-world market, particularly for adventure-oriented wearables. This is where Garmin and Apple are increasingly clashing, with flagship products like the Garmin Fenix and Apple Watch Ultra targeting the same high-performance, outdoor-focused audience.

Innovations in NIRS and optical heart rate (oHR) sensing are poised to play a key role in the next generation of sports and wellness wearables. Both Garmin and Apple currently use relatively dated sensor technologies, making these advancements a priority across their product lines. Apple may debut such features with the Watch 11, while Garmin might focus on the Venu 3. However, their flagship models—the Apple Watch Ultra 3 and Garmin Fenix 8 Pro/9—are the most likely candidates first to adopt these cutting-edge capabilities.

Problems

The new stuff has to work commercially.

Risk

Garmin cultivates an image of relative conservatism, and while that may be true to an extent, its history of launching buggy products sometimes pushes the boundaries of acceptable quality. Apple, by contrast, adopts innovations even more cautiously, favouring polished, incremental updates.

Technical Constraints

Wearables face several technical hurdles, particularly around size, power, design, and maintaining core features.

Satellite connectivity (and 5G) requires physically larger chipsets (modems), but integrating these shouldn’t pose significant challenges. The antenna, however, must be 2–3 times larger and carefully designed to account for signal directionality. This adds complexity to the physical layout inside any smartwatch.

Power consumption will increase, with satellite connectivity demanding more energy than current technologies. Additionally, satellite data is costly. Functionality is further restricted by the limited bandwidth of satellite systems.

Garmin, in particular, faces challenges with connectivity. While it has found workarounds for longstanding limitations, it struggles to fully support iOS services due to Apple’s restrictions. However, Garmin’s proprietary infrastructure may enable greater freedom for similar services delivered via satellite.

Volume & Cost

MicroLED displays present a production challenge due to their high failure rate (low yield). Scaling up production to meet demand while maintaining reasonable costs remains a significant barrier for wearable brands like Watch Ultra and Fenix, which need hundreds of thousands of displays.

Legal

Products offering medical-grade features face stringent regulatory hurdles. To expedite time-to-market, companies often water down claims to avoid the lengthy process of obtaining full regulatory approval. This limits the depth and scope of health features at launch.

So. What will happen in 2025?

MicroLED, μLED

Garmin has already leaked a MicroLED Fenix 8 and Fenix 8 Pro (2025). We will likely see this as a super-premium model in H2.2025, but it will unlikely be on any other Garmin sub-brand until at least 2026.

Apple has been developing the same display technology but is known to have cancelled one supplier contract. Apple could only use MicroLED on Watch ULTRA because of the cost and volume considerations. There is some chance that Apple was liaising with more than one supplier, hence some chance that 2025 could see MicroLED on Ultra 3. I would only bet on MicroLED 2025 on a next-gen Garmin Fenix, which is ironic as Apple needs battery savings from this tech more than Garmin.

Take Out: Garmin will have MicroLED in 2025, and Apple probably will not

NIRS Sensors

Apple’s optical sensor array is in its 3rd generation, first introduced on Watch 6. The Apple rumour mill has foreshadowed blood pressure/hypertension monitoring for several years. This will be a massive money spinner that Apple will be keen to get on Watch 11. However, using NIRS to determine blood pressure isn’t easy, and existing tech on competitor wearables is flawed, such as requiring calibration with a 3rd device. I would place an outside bet that Apple produced ‘something’ in the space in 2025 for Watch 11; however, I suspect it will be this.

• Blood pressure trend information. A feature that alerts you to seek medical advice rather than a medical device that you can use to monitor a diagnosed medical condition.
• A hardware tweak circumnavigating patent infringement will be used to add back SpO2 measurements in the USA and then
• A tweak with that spO2 data will be included in the new sleep apnea algorithm.

Garmin’s Elevate technology is currently in the fifth generation (2023), with a successor probably not due in 2025. I understand Garmin is trying to achieve similar outcomes to Apple but would benefit less from being first to market with a new capability like hypertension support. You would also have to assume that Garmin has fewer resources dedicated to wellness applications than Apple and will be less likely to be first to market with next-generation capabilities.

Take Out: Apple will have the next-gen NIRS/optical sensor array in 2025, and Garmin won’t.

5G + Wi-Fi 7

There is no 5G LTE, it’s called 5G (5G Redcap is the low-energy version for wearables). Apple is tipped to move from a 4G Intel modem to a 5G MediaTek alternative (based on MediaTek’s Dimensity 9200+?). These modems inevitably co-support Wi-fi 7.

For many years, Apple has offered watch options with 4G LTE cellular connectivity. Garmin periodically dabbles with the same technology.

We may see the Apple Watch 11/Ultra 3 5G in 2025. 5G uses about 10% more power for noticeably faster data throughput. I use 4G LTE on my Watch 11, but 5G doesn’t excite me unless it enables cloud-based Apple Intelligence features, which, let’s face it, don’t amount to much so far (Dec 2024). Apple doesn’t have AI yet on its watches, so you have to think that 5G will be wasted on the Apple Watch as it currently stands although building a platform for the future makes sense too.

But if a new cellular chipset also adds WiFi 7 with 5G, why not use both? Apple already supports WiFi 7 on iPhone 16.

Take Out: Apple will have the 5G  and Wi-Fi 7. Surely, Garmin will re-enter 4GLTE/5G with a Forerunner/Fenix or Venu option.

Satellite connectivity (on-watch)

Apple Watch is strongly tipped to link to Globalstar low earth orbit satellites in 2025, perhaps with a Broadcom chip.

Garmin Messenger and inReach features work via Iridium low Earth orbit satellites. Apple’s iPhone satellite services are free for two years.

This is the most interesting area of tech for its impact on safety and adventure sports, and it’s one area where Garmin needs to move ahead even if sales and subscriptions to its complementary inReach ecosystem are hit.

Garmin Fenix and Watch Ultra will benefit by offering off-grid adventurers autonomous safety options. Adding simple messaging support and limited support for key 3rd party safety data like weather will be compelling.

Sadly, for Garmin Fenix, I see Watch Ultra as far more likely to get a satellite boost in 2025 if the tech can be sufficiently powered and miniaturised. However, I have a sneaky suspicion that the rumours of Apple Watch satellite connectivity for 2025 might refer to how Watch Ultra 3 might piggyback existing satellite connectivity on the iPhone, as Apple leaks tend to over-egg reality.

Take Out: Don’t get your hopes up. Apple will add satellite-related features to Watch Ultra 3, but maybe a connected feature rather than an autonomous one. I expect Garmin Fenix to add nothing here in 2025, which is a boost for Watch Ultra.

Take Out

I think that’s about right. Thoughts and corrections are welcome below.