TrainerRoad has known since May 2026 that its AI FTP Prediction doesn’t properly work for athletes who ride their scheduled workouts outside, and six months later the fix has still not shipped.
the5krunner’s take: If you train outdoors with TrainerRoad, ignore the falling FTP prediction and check each AI FTP Detection against a recent hard outdoor effort, because the forecast is broken and hard outdoor rides aren’t always credited.
- TrainerRoad called the fault a high-priority item on 18 May 2026: athletes who complete scheduled outside workouts can see their predicted FTP drop afterwards (TrainerRoad forum).
- Planned outdoor workouts are read incorrectly, so the prediction starts too high and is trimmed after each workout until it meets the next AI FTP Detection. TrainerRoad said in May there was no workaround.
- TrainerRoad has also said hard, unstructured outdoor rides are not always credited as fitness gains. TrainerRoad says riders who do all their structured workouts indoors are unlikely to see it.
- Away from this fault, riders broadly rate the new workout choices: many say sessions are harder yet fail less often, while a vocal group finds the plans too conservative and the calendar changes hard to follow.
- TrainerRoad called it the company’s top priority on 2 June, a fix “in the pipeline” on 5 August, “really close” on 30 October and “a big one” on 2 November. Nothing had shipped by 15 November.
- The main thread has 614 posts and 26,700 views, a second complaint thread has 303, and about 200 riders have posted across the two.
- TR AI and its new FTP model launched in January 2026, and the outdoor fault was acknowledged four months later.
For TrainerRoad subscribers: outdoor riders are doing the coaching themselves
The prediction is only a forecast, and riders report it usually ends up matching the detected FTP at the end of a block, so its main cost is trust in a number that falls after every outdoor workout. The training cost comes when hard outdoor rides go uncredited, because the detected FTP then lags and the next workouts come out too easy. The advice from staff and riders amounts to doing the job by hand: raise your FTP manually, pick harder alternates, move the training approach setting towards aggressive and take care with post-ride surveys. That is the work the subscription is meant to do, and some long-time members say only an old guaranteed price is keeping them. If the fix is not proven before riders head back outdoors in spring, Zwift’s new adaptive plans give them an obvious alternative to compare.
Quick answers
Is TrainerRoad's AI FTP accurate?
TrainerRoad says riders who do their structured workouts indoors should see sensible figures. Outdoors, the prediction overshoots and then falls, and hard unstructured rides are not always credited, so compare the detected FTP with a recent hard effort or a ramp test.
Can you turn off TrainerRoad's AI FTP prediction?
Yes. Click the next prediction on your calendar, choose the edit (pencil) button and switch it off. TrainerRoad says you may need to repeat this after each AI FTP Detection.
What can I do until the fix arrives?
Set your FTP by hand from a recent hard effort, fill in every post-ride survey honestly, and pick a harder alternate or move the training approach setting towards aggressive when workouts feel too easy. Many riders simply ignore the predicted number and follow the workouts. TrainerRoad still wants each case reported through the form at the top of its forum thread.
Related: the best indoor cycling apps and which coaching platforms are still independent.
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Last Updated on 15 November 2026 by tfk the5krunner
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tfk is the founder and author of the5krunner, an independent endurance sports technology publication. With 20 years of hands-on testing of GPS watches and wearables, and competing in triathlons at an international age-group level, tfk provides in-depth expert analysis of fitness technology for serious athletes and endurance sport competitors. See the gear tfk uses. ID
