Garmin has told investors that higher prices are one way it could cover the soaring cost of memory chips. Asked about pricing power on the Q3 2026 earnings call, CEO Cliff Pemble called price “one of the tools that we have”. He made no commitment, but I think rises are coming, for three reasons.
- Garmin’s investors expect its record margins to hold.
- Memory now costs far more than it did, and
- the cheap stock that shielded Garmin is running out, with no relief in sight because new chip capacity is years away.
And the two things that covered the gap until now, i.e. Fitness Division growth and simply selling more watches discounting , are fading.
The rest of this piece sets out the evidence for each, who is likely to pay, and what to do if you’re buying.
Investors want the margins to hold
Garmin expects a record gross margin of 61% in 2026. Pemble told analysts it will fall back to a “historical range” in 2027, mainly because of memory, and Barclays put that at 58% to 59%. Investors didn’t like it, and the shares fell about 7% during the call, as covered in my Q3 earnings analysis.
RAMAGEDDON – Cheap memory is running out
Until now Garmin has been shielded. It bought a safety stock of memory at lower prices, further, it grew by selling more watches rather than by discounting them, a point Pemble has made on earlier earnings calls. Pemble said that stock is running down and new supplies cost significantly more than last year (chart below, CCM PREDICTIONS). Garmin is also stockpiling and prepaying suppliers to make sure it gets chips at all, which cut its 2026 cash flow.
I don’t expect memory prices to fall far in 2027, even in the best case. AI data centres are taking much of the world’s memory output, and new chip factories take years to build and reach volume. SK Hynix chief executive Kwak Noh-Jung told Reuters in July that 2027 will be the worst year for supply in the industry’s history – expect the shortage to last through 2027.
DRAM prices are about ten times higher than 18 months ago, according to CCM Predictions. They dipped after peaking in the second quarter, but have since climbed back to that peak.
Selling more watches is getting harder
The other way to protect profit is volume, and that is slowing. The Fitness Division growth trend is falling – 42% in Q1 to 25% in Q2 and 16% in Q3.
Pemble says registrations outpaced shipments to retailers, so demand held up while shops cleared space for the holidays. My own view is that the twenty-something boom in running and fitness that drove the last few years has been largely satisfied. RunSignup’s latest race trends report supports my view, showing per-race participation growth slowing to 5% in 2025, from 10% and 8% in the two years before, although Strava says Gen Z is still its fastest-growing group of racers. The question here is, “Have they already bought a watch?”
Garmin also can’t make many more watches. Pemble said volumes “have basically reached our capacity”, and its new factory doesn’t start production until 2027.
What it means if you’re buying
Pemble said retailer interest in Q4 promotions is very strong, and shops have run down stock ahead of the holidays. If you were planning to buy a Garmin in the next year, Black Friday 2026 is likely to be the best price you’ll see for a while.
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Quick answers
Will Garmin raise prices in 2027?
Garmin has not announced any price rises. On its Q3 2026 earnings call, CEO Cliff Pemble said price is one of the tools Garmin can use to offset higher memory costs, alongside its own manufacturing and scale.
Why are memory chips more expensive?
Demand from the AI build-out has outstripped supply, and Garmin says new memory costs significantly more than last year. Garmin is stockpiling and prepaying suppliers to secure chips.
Is Black Friday 2026 a good time to buy a Garmin?
Garmin says retailer interest in Q4 promotions is very strong, so deep discounts are likely. With prices possibly rising in 2027, Black Friday 2026 may be the cheapest point for some time.
Last Updated on 28 October 2026 by tfk the5krunner
Small things I always use
- Garmin 90-degree charging adapter: Charges your Garmin from any USB-C cable. Essential when travelling. I use one.
- Body Glide: The blue anti-chafe stick swimmers and runners carry. I use it.
- Speedo earplugs: Fewer ear infections and no cold-water dizziness. I use them.
- Dryrobe Advance: My winter changing robe for open-water swims. I use one. A cheaper option is the AONYIYI changing robe.
- Maurten: Race fuel that stays easy on the stomach. I use them.
- Beet It Sport nitrate shots: Beetroot shots I take in the days before a race. I use them.
- Garmin charging puck: The quickest way to top up before a session. I use one.
- Injinji: Toe socks that stop rubbing, so you run more. I use them.
- Ultimate toe protectors: Stop black toenails on long runs. They work. I use them.
- Compressport R2 v2 calf sleeves: My calf sleeves of choice. I use them.
- Cellucor C4: My pre-workout before hard sessions.
- TPU tubes: Schwalbe Aerothan, Tubolito and Pirelli SmarTube. Light, tiny spares. I use all three.
- G8 insoles: Adjustable insoles that are good. I use them.
- Cycplus Cube: A 97g electric pump that gets a road tyre rideable in two minutes. I carry one. 5% off with code THE5KRUNNER.
Watches and sensors
- Polar H10: My daily driver for waking HRV.
- Polar Verity Sense: My backup arm-worn HR sensor.
- Nomad bedside charger: Charges my iPhone and Apple Watch overnight. I use it, and many of their bands.
- Train.Red: The best muscle oxygen sensor I’ve used.
- Tymewear: Accurate heart rate and reliable ventilatory zones. I use it to pace endurance rides over an hour.
- Garmin Forerunner 970: A pro-grade triathlon watch. I use this.
- Apple Watch Ultra 4: My daily smartwatch. No phone needed on rides.
- Garmin Fenix 9 Pro: I’ve just bought one.
On the bike
- Continental GP5000 for everyday riding, and Aero 111 on the front for special occasions.
- Helmets: Specialized S-Works Evade 3 for road riding, and Rudy Project Wing for TT-style races. I use both.
- Ravemen FR300: A front light that mounts under your Garmin or Wahoo. I use one.
- Wahoo TRACKR Radar: I use it on one bike and Varia on the other. They perform the same.
- Garmin Varia RTL515: Radar that warns you of cars from behind. I use this model.
- Wahoo ELEMNT Roam 3: The bike computer that’s easy to use. I use mine on most rides.
- Favero Assioma Pro RS2: Accurate power pedals that swap easily between bikes. I use this model.
Home and indoor training
- NPE Runn: Makes my basic treadmill smart, sending more accurate speed and distance to my watch and Zwift. I use it.
- Google Wifi: Keeps Zwift connected in my pain cave. I use it.
- Apple TV 4K: Zwift on the big screen. I use two.
- Google Nest Doorbell (wired, 2nd gen): My video doorbell, running in both Google Home and Apple Home. I use it.
Health, recovery and sleep
- FreeStyle Libre 3 Plus: Shows how my blood sugar responds to diet.
- hDrop: Measures my sweat loss in summer and indoors.
- Fourth Frontier Zone: Checks my heart under load in hard sessions.
- Oura Ring 5: My partner’s recovery tracker of choice.
- Eight Sleep: A cooling mattress cover my partner and I use nightly.
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tfk is the founder and author of the5krunner, an independent endurance sports technology publication. With 20 years of hands-on testing of GPS watches and wearables, and competing in triathlons at an international age-group level, tfk provides in-depth expert analysis of fitness technology for serious athletes and endurance sport competitors. See the gear tfk uses. ID
