Garmin reported record third-quarter results, with revenue up 12% to $1.99 billion and operating income up 34% to $612 million. Yet GRMN shares fell about 7% while the wider market was flat. The drop began during the earnings call, when executives spelt out three problems the press release skated over: less cash, lower margins next year, and slowing growth. Underpinning that are a slowdown in the young demographic driving the boom and rising memory costs, both of which won’t reverse any time soon.
Fitness: Revenue rose 16% to $694 million, led by wearables. Gross and operating margins were 63% and 33%, resulting in $231 million in operating income. CIRQA launched in the quarter. The Edge 1060 and Edge Explore 3 followed in October.- Outdoor: Revenue rose 20% to $597 million on Fenix 9 and Fenix 9 Pro. Gross and operating margins were 68% and 39%, giving $233 million of operating income, more than Fitness for the first time this year.
The Americas grew 15%, EMEA 12% and APAC 4%. CFO Doug Boessen blamed China for APAC’s slowdown; outside China, he said, APAC grew at a similar rate to the other regions.
Garmin ended the quarter with $4.1 billion in cash-like assets, down from $4.4 billion in Q2. It paid $202 million in dividends and bought back $41 million of stock, leaving $407 million on the buyback programme.
Against expectations
GRMN rose about 1% in pre-market trading and reached about $295 by 10:30 a.m. Eastern, when the call began. From 10:45 a.m., it fell, and by 11:44 a.m. it was down 7.1% at $268.80. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% over the same morning, and the Nasdaq was flat.
Share prices reflect the consensus view of a company’s future, and new information has changed that consensus.
Garmin raised its full-year guidance for the second quarter in a row, but cut its cash forecast.
| Full-year 2026 guidance | July | October |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.05 billion | $8.15 billion |
| Pro forma EPS | $10.00 | $10.80 |
| Gross margin | 59.7% | 61.0% |
| Operating margin | 27% | 29% |
| Free cash flow | About $1.4 billion | About $1.1 billion |
| Tax rate | 16.5% | 16.5% |
Revenue guidance rose 1%. EPS guidance rose 8%, almost all from margins, including $33 million of tariff refunds that Boessen said will not recur at that scale.
My Personal Take: This was a record quarter that looked backwards. Profit came from the Fenix launch, a weak Taiwan dollar, and tariff refunds. Everything forward-looking points down: less cash this year, thinner margins (or higher prices) next year, and a Fitness division losing pace. Investors read it the same way.
Dark cloud 1: cash
Free cash flow guidance for 2026 fell to $1.1 billion from $1.4 billion. Q3 free cash flow was $293 million, against $425 million a year earlier.
The cash has gone into memory. Garmin is stockpiling components to hedge against shortages and is prepaying suppliers to secure deliveries. Inventory is $2.25 billion, up 27% since December. Capital spending on the new factory also rose to $101 million, up from $60 million a year earlier.
You may have heard that companies like NVIDIA are soaking up demand for high-end memory chips and wondered why that affects Garmin. One explanation is that physical production space is being turned over to high-end chips; another is that companies like Garmin are buying production in advance and hence driving prices up.
As the chart at CCM:PREDICTIONS shows (presentation October 2026), DRAM prices are about 10x higher than 18 months ago, with price growth showing no signs of slowing.
Dark cloud 2: margins
Garmin’s record margins rest on memory it bought cheaply. That stock is running out, and Pemble said new supplies cost significantly more. The hit was small in Q3 and will be larger in Q4.
In 2027, gross margin returns to a “historical range”, Pemble said. Barclays analyst Tim Long put it at 58% to 59%, down from 61% this year, and Garmin did not disagree.
Garmin will offset what it can through its own factories and scale. Asked about pricing power, Pemble called price “one of the tools” available. Athletes waiting for 2027 watches should expect higher prices.
Dark cloud 3: slowing growth
Fitness growth has fallen from 42% in Q1 to 25% in Q2 and 16% in Q3. Revenue fell 8% between Q2 and Q3, from $757 million to $694 million; a year earlier, it was flat over the same period. Over nine months, Fitness is still up 26%.
Pemble disputes the gloom. Registrations outpaced sales to retailers in Q3, which means shops ran down stock ahead of the holidays while demand from athletes held up. He expects Fitness to keep its pace in Q4 and to be the biggest contributor to 2026 growth.
CIRQA demand “exceeded our expectations” and Garmin is still clearing a backlog. This site found CIRQA does not reliably save the workouts it records, and Suunto’s HR264 is a rival screenless band on the way.
Outdoor: Fenix is back
Outdoor rose 20% after three declines in four quarters, and Pemble credited Fenix 9. The watch launched on 25 August, so the quarter captured only a month of direct sales and orders fulfilled through sales channels. Early buyers are mostly existing owners upgrading from a watch more than one generation old, with new athletes following as it reaches more shops. Garmin is still filling a Fenix backlog and expects it to lead Outdoor again in Q4.
The launch has been rougher for owners. This site’s tracker lists 123 reported Fenix 9 bugs.
Positive Note: In April, this site’s headline was “Fenix, we’ve got a problem”. For at least one quarter, Fenix 9 has answered it.
What’s coming next
October brought the holiday launches: Edge 1060, Edge Explore 3 and the Tacx Nera in Fitness; MARQ Gen 3, Enduro 4 and the Approach S72 in Outdoor. Pemble said retailer interest in Q4 promotions is very strong, so expect deep Black Friday discounts.
Garmin has also run out of factory capacity. The new plant starts production in early 2027.
Insights from the analyst briefing
- Connect Plus is beating Garmin’s own forecasts. Renewals after free trials are strong, CIRQA owners are subscribing to get more from the band, and Garmin already limits some new features, such as nutrition, to subscribers. Expect more of that, as I explain in why Connect+ is growing.
- New athletes enter at the bottom of the range. CIRQA, vivoactive and Forerunner 70 and 170 bring mostly new customers; Fenix sells mostly to existing owners. More in your first Garmin probably won’t be a watch.
- Prices may rise in 2027. Pricing is one of Garmin’s ways to offset memory costs.
Garmin Fenix 9 range
Every Fenix 9 and Fenix 9 Pro model, including AMOLED, Solar, and inReach variants across all sizes. One link to the full range.
RRP from $999 / €999 / £859
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Garmin CIRQA Smart Band
Screenless health and fitness band (no subscription required)
RRP £179.99
$199.99/€199.99
- use code:
Get it nowOrder now – Garmin CIRQA Smart Band Also sold direct bySources & resources
- Garmin Share Price
- S&P 500
- Nasdaq
- Garmin Investor Relations: Q3 2026 results and webcast
- Garmin Official Site
Garmin Q2 2026 Earnings: Fenix falls. CIRQA sells out. Fenix 9 teased.
Garmin Q3 2025 Earnings: Fitness Explodes, Fenix 8 Pro Underwhelms
For the complete Garmin Fenix series guide, covering all current models, history and buying advice, see the Garmin Fenix hub. For the Forerunner range, see the Garmin Forerunner hub; for a current buying recommendation, see the best Garmin Fenix guide.
Explore the full resource library
This site covers endurance sport technology across a range of dedicated reference sections. Each one collects the most relevant articles, tests, and analysis on its topic in one place.
Buyer guides
- Best sports watch: tested recommendations by sport and athlete type (triathlon, running, marathon, cycling, hiking, and women)
- Best Garmin watch: Forerunner versus Fenix by series, sport, and budget
- Best wearables: fitness trackers, recovery trackers, heart rate monitors, running power meters, and female athlete tech
- Best cycling products: computers, smart trainers, power meters, and cycling heart rate monitors
- Buying guides: every upgrade guide and product comparison in one place, by brand, for owners deciding whether to move to the newest model
- Gear I use: the watches, bikes, sensors, fuel and sleep kit tfk actually trains and races with, and what his partner uses
Brand and product guides
- Amazfit: the full Amazfit range from Balance to Cheetah to T-Rex, accuracy tests, HYROX partnership, and Zepp Health analysis
- Apple Watch: athlete-first coverage of Apple Watch across running, cycling, and triathlon
- COROS: watches, features, and firmware across the full COROS range
- Garmin: the company, the platform and the full range, and the starting point for choosing across every Garmin product line
- Garmin Edge: bike computers from entry-level navigation to flagship endurance and mountain biking
- Bike computers: Garmin, Wahoo, Hammerhead, COROS and the value brands compared
- Bryton: the Rider range compared, from basic GPS units to the S810 with maps
- Garmin Fenix: every model, feature, and firmware development for Garmin's flagship outdoor watch
- Garmin Fenix 8 Series: which variant to buy, upgrade advice, accuracy data, and the full Fenix 8 review and firmware coverage
- Garmin Forerunner: the full Forerunner line covered from entry level to triathlon flagship
- Garmin Instinct: rugged GPS watches for endurance and adventure athletes
- Garmin Features Explained: how Garmin's metrics work, from Training Load and Body Battery to Race Predictor and HRV Status
- Google Fitbit: Fitbit Edge, Fitbit Air, Google Health, Pixel Watch and the Wear OS platform
- Magene: which Magene bike computer to buy, from the C506 to the C706, with tested verdicts
- Polar: watches, sensors, Polar Flow and training science across the full Polar range
- Runna: coach-written running plans that adapt as you train
- Suunto: Race, Vertical, Run and the SuuntoPlus ecosystem
- Strava: features, privacy, segments, and how Strava fits into a serious training setup
- Ride with GPS: route planning, navigation and how it works alongside Strava
- Wahoo: KICKR trainers, ELEMNT bike computers, and the Wahoo ecosystem
- WHOOP: strain, recovery, sleep and the full WHOOP ecosystem
Specifications database
- Full Specifications Database: detailed spec sheets, battery life, sensor lists and generation-on-generation comparisons for current Garmin, COROS, Amazfit, Samsung, Google Fitbit, Huawei, Polar, Suunto, Wahoo and Apple Watch models
Glossary
- Sports Technology Glossary: non-branded terminology across running, cycling, swimming, triathlon, hiking, strength training, HYROX, sensors, ecosystems, and brands
Sport and topic guides
- Running Watches: how to choose by discipline (road racing, trail, track, beginner, and multisport)
- Triathlon and Multisport Technology: watches, sensors, and race-day tools for swimmers, cyclists, and runners
- HYROX: training science, race analysis, and technology for the functional fitness race format
- parkrun: technology, training, and performance for the weekly 5K
- Hiking Technology: navigation, safety, and trail tech for walkers and hikers
- Heart Rate Monitoring: optical sensors, chest straps, accuracy comparisons, and how to set training zones
- Optical Sensors (PPG): the 40 things a wrist optical sensor could measure, from heart rate to glucose, ranked by evidence
- GPS Accuracy: how satellite systems perform across brands, terrains, and conditions
- Sports Watch Battery Life: battery claims, real-world tests, and how to manage battery life across Garmin, Apple, Amazfit and COROS
- Recovery Trackers: WHOOP, Oura, and the science of readiness scoring
- Muscle Oxygen Sensors: SmO2 and NIRS explained, Train Red and Moxy compared, and the category from BSX and Humon to Garmin and WHOOP
- Female Athlete Tech: wearables, physiology, and performance for female endurance athletes, covering cycle-synced training, RED-S, HR accuracy, and VO2max
- Sports Science: peer-reviewed research on HRV, VO2max, lactate threshold, running power, wearable accuracy, and supplementation
- Testing Methodology: how this site tests GPS accuracy, heart rate, battery life, and other performance claims
Content series
- Release Radar: confirmed launches, leaks, and rumours across Garmin, Apple, COROS, Polar, Suunto, and Wahoo
- Deep Dive Feature Files: weekly firmware feature updates across all brands (bug fixes excluded)
- Fix Files: weekly firmware bug fix tracking across all brands
Last Updated on 28 October 2026 by tfk the5krunner
Small things I always use
- Garmin 90-degree charging adapter: Charges your Garmin from any USB-C cable. Essential when travelling. I use one.
- Body Glide: The blue anti-chafe stick swimmers and runners carry. I use it.
- Speedo earplugs: Fewer ear infections and no cold-water dizziness. I use them.
- Dryrobe Advance: My winter changing robe for open-water swims. I use one. A cheaper option is the AONYIYI changing robe.
- Maurten: Race fuel that stays easy on the stomach. I use them.
- Beet It Sport nitrate shots: Beetroot shots I take in the days before a race. I use them.
- Garmin charging puck: The quickest way to top up before a session. I use one.
- Injinji: Toe socks that stop rubbing, so you run more. I use them.
- Ultimate toe protectors: Stop black toenails on long runs. They work. I use them.
- Compressport R2 v2 calf sleeves: My calf sleeves of choice. I use them.
- Cellucor C4: My pre-workout before hard sessions.
- TPU tubes: Schwalbe Aerothan, Tubolito and Pirelli SmarTube. Light, tiny spares. I use all three.
- G8 insoles: Adjustable insoles that are good. I use them.
- Cycplus Cube: A 97g electric pump that gets a road tyre rideable in two minutes. I carry one. 5% off with code THE5KRUNNER.
Watches and sensors
- Polar H10: My daily driver for waking HRV.
- Polar Verity Sense: My backup arm-worn HR sensor.
- Nomad bedside charger: Charges my iPhone and Apple Watch overnight. I use it, and many of their bands.
- Train.Red: The best muscle oxygen sensor I’ve used.
- Tymewear: Accurate heart rate and reliable ventilatory zones. I use it to pace endurance rides over an hour.
- Garmin Forerunner 970: A pro-grade triathlon watch. I use this.
- Apple Watch Ultra 4: My daily smartwatch. No phone needed on rides.
- Garmin Fenix 9 Pro: I’ve just bought one.
On the bike
- Continental GP5000 for everyday riding, and Aero 111 on the front for special occasions.
- Helmets: Specialized S-Works Evade 3 for road riding, and Rudy Project Wing for TT-style races. I use both.
- Ravemen FR300: A front light that mounts under your Garmin or Wahoo. I use one.
- Wahoo TRACKR Radar: I use it on one bike and Varia on the other. They perform the same.
- Garmin Varia RTL515: Radar that warns you of cars from behind. I use this model.
- Wahoo ELEMNT Roam 3: The bike computer that’s easy to use. I use mine on most rides.
- Favero Assioma Pro RS2: Accurate power pedals that swap easily between bikes. I use this model.
Home and indoor training
- NPE Runn: Makes my basic treadmill smart, sending more accurate speed and distance to my watch and Zwift. I use it.
- Google Wifi: Keeps Zwift connected in my pain cave. I use it.
- Apple TV 4K: Zwift on the big screen. I use two.
- Google Nest Doorbell (wired, 2nd gen): My video doorbell, running in both Google Home and Apple Home. I use it.
Health, recovery and sleep
- FreeStyle Libre 3 Plus: Shows how my blood sugar responds to diet.
- hDrop: Measures my sweat loss in summer and indoors.
- Fourth Frontier Zone: Checks my heart under load in hard sessions.
- Oura Ring 5: My partner’s recovery tracker of choice.
- Eight Sleep: A cooling mattress cover my partner and I use nightly.
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Written by real people, with AI assistance. Fact-checked and verified for originality. See the Editorial Policy. FTC: Affiliate Disclosure — some links pay commission. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases.
tfk is the founder and author of the5krunner, an independent endurance sports technology publication. With 20 years of hands-on testing of GPS watches and wearables, and competing in triathlons at an international age-group level, tfk provides in-depth expert analysis of fitness technology for serious athletes and endurance sport competitors. See the gear tfk uses. ID
