Apple Watch 10 Predictions

More: Apple Watch Ultra Review

Apple’s launch event for Watch 10 is Monday 9th September.

Apple’s products are quietly changing direction under the hood to support Apple Intelligence – older models will forever remain devoid of AI.

We already know most of the software features on WatchOS 11 as they were announced in June. So this post gives predictions on the new hardware for all Watch models based on some limited leaks, industry commentators and my understanding of wider trends.

Watch X aka Watch 10

It’s widely believed that we will see case sizes boosted to 46mm and 49mm, the latter being similar to Ultra 2. Display sizes can then increase by about 10% and the internal space available for a battery will also increase. It’s rumoured that the watch will be subtly thinner.

Those rumoured case sizes are big. I’m surprised that the smallest size would be 46mm and I don’t believe those rumours yet they persist. If the rumours were for 3 case sizes 41mm, 46mm and 49mm then I’d believe that. I might even go as far as to say that the rumours misinterpreted the introduction of a new and larger case size alongside perhaps moderate size increases to the existing models ie 41 and 44 mm going to 42, 45 and 49mm.

These are the changes I expect, I’ll use bullet points for clarity. The tiny number of changes I predict are in bold.

• Durability
  • unchanged with WR50 (ISO 22810:2010 water resistant). Ultra 2 is WR100 with a 40m dive rating.
  • unchanged IPX6X for dust.
• Connectivity – W3 wireless chip (a new W4?)
  • Unchanged with Bluetooth 5.3. Bluetooth 5.4 (2023) exists but offers no performance improvements but does offer security improvements. Bluetooth 6 was recently announced.
  • Wi-fi 6 (IEEE 802.11ax) will be added, upgrading from Wi-Fi 5 (802.11 b/g/n 2.4 GHz & 5 GHz)
  • Ultra Wide Band – UWB 2 will be unchanged
• New 4th generation Optical HR Sensor added – it’s been a long time since the 3rd gen sensor was released with Watch 6. Without using Masimo’s patents, the 4th-generation sensor will have the same temperature, SpO2 and ECG capabilities. Rather than wholly new tech it might simply be tweaked hardware to support SpO2 by a new method.
  • The new generation sensor will have NEW sensing capabilities, whether we see them activated, IDK. I expect snoring detection and Sleep Apnea monitoring (requires SpO2). There’s an outside chance of support for a blood pressure trend sensor with watered-down usefulness and accuracy.
• GNSS – with GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, QZSS, and BeiDou. Seemingly unchanged hardware from Series 7
  • However dual frequency (L1+L5) was added to Watch 8/Ultra 2 so likely this was enabled by new GNSS hardware
  • It is unknown if Apple uses intelligent dual frequency control like Garmin’s SatIQ. My bet is they already do, if not my bet is they will now add it to the existing GNSS chipset
• Accelerometer – Same as the Series 8 High-G capability
• Gyroscope – Same as the Series 8 High dynamic range capability
• Ambient light sensor – unchanged
• Altimeter – Always On since Series 6 (technically earlier than that)
• Compass – Unchanged
• Battery capacity
  • Watch 9 was unchanged at 282 mAh (41mm) and 308 mAh (45mm). Watch 10 will be the same or very similar
  • Apple is experimenting with silicon cathode batteries and conductively efficient carbon nanotubes, plus battery chemistry with Co/Mn/Al/Mn, that will first come to laptops and phones even then only 10-20% modest gains from the same volume will exist. Point being: there is no magic battery technology that will materially change the battery life of the Apple Watch.
  • Capacity will only materially increase if there are larger case sizes
• Battery Life Claims will be unchanged unless there are BIG case size increases eg from 45mm to 49mm. Real-life usage can be initially higher than the claimed figures but degradation occurs over time.
  • 7 hours of proper GPS recording and 18 hours of all-day battery life are the current claims. I could see a 24-hour battery life with a 49mm case, remember the case would be thinner than Watch ULTRA so battery life would still lag behind Ultra.
• Display – same technology as Series 8/9 LTPO OLED Always-On Retina
  • Maximum brightness – Like ULTRA 2 this will rise to 3000 nits.
    
  • Small size: 41 mm: 1.7″ 352×430px unchanged from Watch 9
  • Medium Size: 45 mm: 1.9″ 396×484px unchanged from Watch 9
  • new Large Size: 49 mm: 1.9″ 410×502px! Maybe
    
• CPU will get a bump, like the iPhone there will be an improved neural processor for Apple Intelligence, the new Siri, Gesture controls and more – called S10 SiP (64-bit Dual-Core)
•  Storage: unchanged at 64Gb from Series 9
  
• RAM: 1 GB in Series 8. Series 9/Ultra 2 are unknown. Series 10 will be unknown
• Strap – it’s rumoured that the strap attachment mechanism will entirely change to be magnetic freeing up internal space for a slightly larger battery. I do NOT think this will happen, making old straps obsolete will hack off a LOT of people.
• Pricing: Similar

Watch SE 3

Watch SE 3 will just be called Watch SE. As the lower model, it will not have any unique innovations instead, it will receive trickledown updates. I don’t want to dwell on this too much but production costs will likely be lowered by using cheaper plastic materials. The form factor will probably stay the same at 41mm and 45mm, enabling it to use existing components.

Watch Ultra 3

My take is that there will not be a Watch Ultra 3 this year, although many rumours to the contrary exist. microLED displays seem to have originally been planned for an ULTRA 3 this year but at least one of Apple’s microLED suppliers had its development contract terminated and the general assumption is that microLED won’t arrive on an Apple product until 2025 at the earliest.

SE, Watch 8 and Watch ULTRA were all released in the same year so it’s certainly possible we’ll get 3 models this year as well.

My hope would be for an Ultra 2s, for smaller wristed people.

Apple Watch 10 – Take out

There will be a reasonable amount of modest changes this year. Mostly incremental but the big one is support for Apple Intelligence – just like the iPhone 15 Pro, this Watch will be future-proofed for future AI features…it will be worth the upgrade.

We might get a new larger-sized variant.

My take is that there will be more marketing excitement from a new optical HR sensor which might include Apnea support and modest power savings to boost battery life.

The screen will support a higher brightness, the GPS chip might support variable accuracy modes and Wifi 6 support will also come onboard.

Battery life claims will be unchanged unless there is a 49mm Watch 10 version.

What Next for Apple Watch? 2026 and beyond

The two biggest changes are already in progress. Apple’s future will focus on augmented Reality and AI, these 2 areas mean big changes to Watch namely, gesture controls to match Apple Vision and Siri integrated with AI both of which need chip changes.

The future will essentially see 5 broad areas of change for Apple Watch ie mostly we exclude software here

1. Smaller and more energy-efficient sensor components with essentially the same features as already present. So, there might be a new gyroscope or two sensors combined into one chip, that kind of thing. But nobody will really care or even get to know about it (IMPACT: LOW)
2. Higher performance components – essentially ever more capable CPUs and supporting architectures that can run the Watch faster, more smoothly and at lower power levels. (IMPACT: MEDIUM)
3. Transformative technologies. This is the exciting stuff with huge commercial rewards for Apple if it can pull it off (IMPACT: HIGH)
   • Micro LED screens will come in 2025 or 2026. Here pixels are controlled individually and this saves a ton of power. This is existing technology it just has to appear for the first time on a high-end watch like Apple’s (Apple cancelled one microLED contract but almost certainly continues with other suppliers)
   • New NIRS sensing tech will come in 2025 or 2026. There are a whole raft of new physiological features on the cusp of being sensed. We mostly hear about blood sugar (Supersapiens/Abbot) and blood pressure but creatinine, lactate and hydration (Nix) are all up for grabs too from sensors similar to those in trials from Rockley. None of this technology is properly working today in smartwatches but it is all tantalisingly close. These technologies have the potential to sense in subtly different ways that could be even more energy efficient than today as well as provide insights with new data points. Most new data points will probably be ‘wellness ‘-related (vitals) rather than sports-related (training load) and thus show trends rather than provide real-time feedback.
   • New battery tech – we’ve seen silicone anode batteries from WHOOP, solid-state batteries could come within a few years whereas graphene and other tech realistically won’t be with us until the 2030s.
4. New form Factors are rumoured to be in the offing for Apple Watch. Whether this simply means a smaller version of Ultra or a more radical round watch face, who knows? (IMPACT: HIGH)
5. Richer Ecosystem Integration – Apple Vision could hand off maps or workouts or something else to Watch or iPhone. Ever deeper Apple Intelligence links (IMPACT: HIGH)