I expect the Garmin Forerunner 170 to cost about $40 more in 2027, taking it from $299.99 to around $339.99. That is what Garmin needs to charge to keep its margin once memory chips, other parts and a new factory are paid for at 2027 prices. In practice, the rise will most likely hit other successor Forerunner watches rather than the watch you can buy today.
I’ve used the Forerunner 170 because it is close to a typical Garmin: mid-priced, sold in volume, and from the Fitness division, which runs a 63% gross margin. There won’t be a successor next year, but the same argument that follows should be applied to the range, and a similar argument will apply to other Garmin ranges.
Where the $40 comes from
I estimate a Forerunner 170 costs Garmin about $69 to make based on a 63% gross margin and 38% retailer margin applied to the retail price. The table shows what each factor adds to that $69 in 2027, and what it does to the shelf price if Garmin keeps its 63% margin.
| Factor | Best case | Most likely | Worst case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memory chips | +$3 (+$13) | +$6 (+$26) | +$8 (+$35) |
| Other parts: circuit boards, cabling, passives | +$0.50 (+$2) | +$1.50 (+$7) | +$3 (+$13) |
| Stronger Taiwan dollar | $0 | +$0.75 (+$3) | +$1.50 (+$7) |
| New Thailand factory | +$0.25 (+$1) | +$0.75 (+$3) | +$1.50 (+$7) |
| Air freight and fuel | $0 | +$0.25 (+$1) | +$0.75 (+$3) |
| New US import tariff | $0 | $0 | +$14 (+$61) |
| Extra cost to make | +$4 | +$9 | +$29 |
| Price rise to keep a 63% margin | +$16 | +$40 | +$125 |
| US price | $316 | $340 | $425 |
The first figure in each cell is the extra cost to Garmin per watch. The figure in brackets is what it adds to the shelf price.
Assumptions
- Margins: shops keep 38% of the US price before sales tax, as in my Fitbit Air cost breakdown, and Garmin’s gross margin is 63%, its Q3 2026 Fitness figure. Every $1 of extra cost therefore needs about $4.36 on the shelf.
- Memory: about $1 of storage and working memory in 2025. Garmin recently used up cheap stock bought then and is now buying at near-peak prices. Storage chips cost three to five times their 2025 price, and working memory six to twelve times, according to TrendForce and CCM Predictions data.
- Other parts: on the Q3 call, CEO Cliff Pemble said the AI build-out is also pushing up circuit board and cabling costs.
- Taiwan dollar: a weak currency helped Garmin’s Q3 margins. Wages and overheads are paid in Taiwan dollars, so a 0% to 5% rise adds up to $1.50.
- Thailand factory: it starts production in 2027, bringing depreciation and start-up inefficiency into the cost of each watch.
- Freight: a boxed watch weighs about 300g, so even large rises in air freight cost little per unit.
- Tariff: the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, and Garmin booked refunds in Q3. The worst case assumes a new 20% duty on watches made in Taiwan, for example under Section 232. It would apply only to US prices.
Why I think it’s $40
Memory is the one cost I’m confident will rise, and it makes up about two-thirds of the increase. The other factors are small on their own, and I’ve left out a new tariff because nobody knows what will happen there yet.
Garmin doesn’t have to pass it all on. It has already told investors to expect a lower margin in 2027, which suggests it will absorb some of the cost. If it only covered the extra cost and let the margin slip, the rise would be nearer $15.
Either way, a dearer replacement wouldn’t look unusual. New Garmins normally launch well above the model they replace, so the next Forerunners arriving $40 or more above their predecessors would fit the pattern.
What it means if you’re buying
Garmin rarely raises the price of a watch already on sale, so expect the next Forerunners to launch at a higher price, with fewer discounts on this one. That makes this Black Friday a good time to buy. My wider case is that Garmin price rises are on the way in 2027, and the Forerunner 170 review covers whether it’s the right watch for you.
Garmin Forerunner 170
GPS running watch
Quick answers
Will the Garmin Forerunner 170 go up in price?
Garmin hasn’t announced a rise. To keep its 63% margin at 2027 costs, the watch would need to cost about $340 instead of $299.99. I expect the increase to show up on the next Forerunners to launch rather than on the current model.
Why would Garmin prices rise in 2027?
Mainly because memory chips now cost several times what they did in 2025, and Garmin’s cheap stock is running out. Other parts, a stronger Taiwan dollar and a new factory add smaller amounts, and a new US tariff could add far more.
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Last Updated on 7 November 2026 by tfk the5krunner
Small things I always use
- Garmin 90-degree charging adapter: Charges your Garmin from any USB-C cable. Essential when travelling. I use one.
- Body Glide: The blue anti-chafe stick swimmers and runners carry. I use it.
- Speedo earplugs: Fewer ear infections and no cold-water dizziness. I use them.
- Dryrobe Advance: My winter changing robe for open-water swims. I use one. A cheaper option is the AONYIYI changing robe.
- Maurten: Race fuel that stays easy on the stomach. I use them.
- Beet It Sport nitrate shots: Beetroot shots I take in the days before a race. I use them.
- Garmin charging puck: The quickest way to top up before a session. I use one.
- Injinji: Toe socks that stop rubbing, so you run more. I use them.
- Ultimate toe protectors: Stop black toenails on long runs. They work. I use them.
- Compressport R2 v2 calf sleeves: My calf sleeves of choice. I use them.
- Cellucor C4: My pre-workout before hard sessions.
- TPU tubes: Schwalbe Aerothan, Tubolito and Pirelli SmarTube. Light, tiny spares. I use all three.
- G8 insoles: Adjustable insoles that are good. I use them.
- Cycplus Cube: A 97g electric pump that gets a road tyre rideable in two minutes. I carry one. 5% off with code THE5KRUNNER.
Watches and sensors
- Polar H10: My daily driver for waking HRV.
- Polar Verity Sense: My backup arm-worn HR sensor.
- Nomad bedside charger: Charges my iPhone and Apple Watch overnight. I use it, and many of their bands.
- Train.Red: The best muscle oxygen sensor I’ve used.
- Tymewear: Accurate heart rate and reliable ventilatory zones. I use it to pace endurance rides over an hour.
- Garmin Forerunner 970: A pro-grade triathlon watch. I use this.
- Apple Watch Ultra 4: My daily smartwatch. No phone needed on rides.
- Garmin Fenix 9 Pro: I’ve just bought one.
On the bike
- Continental GP5000 for everyday riding, and Aero 111 on the front for special occasions.
- Helmets: Specialized S-Works Evade 3 for road riding, and Rudy Project Wing for TT-style races. I use both.
- Ravemen FR300: A front light that mounts under your Garmin or Wahoo. I use one.
- Ravemen FR1000: The light and the computer mount in one unit, so nothing else goes on the bars. Better than mine.
- Ravemen FR1500SE: 1,500 lumens hanging under your Garmin, for proper night rides.
- Ravemen FR1100SE: 1,100 lumens under your Garmin, and up to 46 hours on slow flash.
- Ravemen FR500: A brighter FR300 with the same mount.
- Wahoo TRACKR Radar: I use it on one bike and Varia on the other. They perform the same.
- Garmin Varia RTL515: Radar that warns you of cars from behind. I use this model.
- Wahoo ELEMNT Roam 3: The bike computer that’s easy to use. I use mine on most rides.
- Favero Assioma Pro RS2: Accurate power pedals that swap easily between bikes. I use this model.
Home and indoor training
- NPE Runn: Makes my basic treadmill smart, sending more accurate speed and distance to my watch and Zwift. I use it.
- Google Wifi: Keeps Zwift connected in my pain cave. I use it.
- Apple TV 4K: Zwift on the big screen. I use two.
- Google Nest Doorbell (wired, 2nd gen): My video doorbell, running in both Google Home and Apple Home. I use it.
Health, recovery and sleep
- FreeStyle Libre 3 Plus: Shows how my blood sugar responds to diet.
- hDrop: Measures my sweat loss in summer and indoors.
- Fourth Frontier Zone: Checks my heart under load in hard sessions.
- Kineon MOVE+: Red and infrared light for sore knees, Achilles and other joints after hard training. I use it.
- Oura Ring 5: My partner’s recovery tracker of choice.
- Eight Sleep: A cooling mattress cover my partner and I use nightly.
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tfk is the founder and author of the5krunner, an independent endurance sports technology publication. With 20 years of hands-on testing of GPS watches and wearables, and competing in triathlons at an international age-group level, tfk provides in-depth expert analysis of fitness technology for serious athletes and endurance sport competitors. See the gear tfk uses. ID
