Apple’s Price Rises Skipped the Watch. September Is the Test
Apple raised prices across most of its lineup on 25 June, citing a memory shortage. The Watch was spared. It was never going to be hit, because a Watch uses so little memory. But there is a September launch looming, and the nature of that may see headline Apple Watch prices rise for the first time in years.
The two factors in play are rising component costs at the product level and market share at the strategic level. Let’s dig into the background.
Context
The increases ran from $30 to $1,300 across Mac, iPad, Apple TV, HomePod and Vision Pro. Apple named the cause as rising costs of memory and storage components, driven by shortages elsewhere caused by AI data centre demand. iPhone, Watch, AirPods and AirTag held prices.
A watch uses a fraction of the memory on a Mac or iPad, so the cost shock is trivial. Counterpoint made the same point a week before the rise: smartwatches are insulated because their bill of materials is light. Apple had nothing to pass on and no cost story to justify a mid-cycle increase.
The common read is that low memory exposure means the Watch price is safe. That assumes memory is the only thing that moves a Watch price. It is not.
September Launch Details Will Be Key
A new CPU arrives every September and usually brings modest changes. It’s routine. AI does not change this narrative, because the Watch runs no AI of its own; that work happens on the paired iPhone. The single most likely candidate for a cost-driven Watch price rise is a refreshed optical heart rate sensor.
Live glucose measurement and true blood pressure remain years out. Yet a new sensor is significantly overdue and widely rumoured. In 2026, that sensor would improve capability, performance and power draw without a transformative new metric. The platform improves, but the headline capability barely moves, and Apple could still charge more for it.
Whatever the cost, Apple cannot push the price too far. The Watch grew 21% year on year in Q1 2026, the fastest of any major brand, while Samsung fell 28%. Apple has just rebuilt the market share it spent two years losing, and it will not carelessly price that away.
Garmin faces the same question. It reached for a higher price at the top end with the MicroLED Fenix 8 Pro and then cut it, and an Elevate Gen 6 sensor is due before long. A refreshed sensor on either wrist raises the same simple question: Will people buy it in sufficient numbers?
The current Series 11, SE 3, and Ultra 3 are only available at today’s prices until September. Series 11 already reached $299 and Ultra models $499 during Prime Day. Read the cause of any September price increase as sensor cost, rather than the memory shortage that explains price rises in other segments.
Takeaway
Apple key price rises were on products with high memory demand because supplies were diverted to fuel the AI boom. The Apple Watch requires relatively little memory. If its price rises in September, the shortage in every headline will have had nothing to do with it. A new optical sensor might.
Last Updated on 3 October 2026 by tfk the5krunner
Small things I always use
- Garmin 90-degree charging adapter: Charges your Garmin with any USB-C cable. Essential when travelling. I use one.
- Body Glide: The blue anti-chafing stick swimmers and runners carry. I use it.
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- Dryrobe Advance: My winter changing robe for open-water swims. I use one. A cheaper option is the AONYIYI changing robe.
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- Beet It Sport nitrate shots: Beetroot shots I take in the days before a race. I use them.
- Garmin charging puck: The quickest way to top up before a session. I use one.
- Injinji: Toe socks that stop rubbing, so you run more. I use them.
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- Cellucor C4: My pre-workout before hard sessions.
- TPU tubes: Schwalbe Aerothan, Tubolito and Pirelli SmarTube. Light, tiny spares. I use all three.
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- Kineon MOVE+: Red and infrared light for sore knees, Achilles and other joints after hard training. I use it.
- FreeStyle Libre 3 Plus: Shows how my blood sugar responds to diet. Occasional use.
- hDrop: Measures my sweat loss in summer and indoors. I use it.
- Fourth Frontier Zone: Checks my heart under load in hard sessions.
- Oura Ring 5: My partner’s recovery tracker of choice.
- Eight Sleep: A cooling mattress cover my partner and I use nightly.
Watches and sensors
- Polar H10: My daily driver for waking HRV.
- Polar Verity Sense: My backup arm-worn HR sensor.
- Nomad bedside charger: Charges my iPhone and Apple Watch overnight. I use it, and many of their bands.
- Train.Red: The best muscle oxygen sensor I’ve used. Occasional use.
- Tymewear: Accurate heart rate and reliable ventilatory zones. I use it to pace endurance rides over an hour.
- Garmin Forerunner 970: A pro-grade triathlon watch. I use this.
- Apple Watch Ultra 4: My daily smartwatch. No phone needed on rides.
On the bike
- Continental GP5000 for everyday riding, and Aero 111 on the front for special occasions. I use both.
- Helmets: Specialized S-Works Evade 3 for road riding, and Rudy Project Wing for TT-style races. I use both.
- Ravemen FR300: A front light that mounts under your Garmin or Wahoo. I use one.
- Ravemen FR1000: The light and the computer mount in one unit, so nothing else goes on the bars. Better than mine.
- Ravemen FR1500SE: 1,500 lumens hanging under your Garmin, for proper night rides.
- Ravemen FR1100SE: 1,100 lumens under your Garmin, and up to 46 hours on slow flash.
- Ravemen FR500: A brighter FR300 with the same mount.
- Wahoo TRACKR Radar: I use it on one bike and Varia on the other. They perform the same.
- Garmin Varia RTL515: Radar that warns you of cars from behind. I use this model.
- Wahoo ELEMNT Roam 3: The bike computer that’s easy to use. I use mine on most rides.
- Favero Assioma Pro RS2: Accurate power pedals that swap easily between bikes. I use this model.
Home and indoor training
- NPE Runn: Makes my basic treadmill smart, sending more accurate speed and distance to my watch and Zwift. I use it.
- Google Wifi: Keeps Zwift connected in my pain cave. I use it.
- Apple TV 4K: Zwift on the big screen. I use two.
- Google Nest Doorbell (wired, 2nd gen): My video doorbell, running in both Google Home and Apple Home via Starling. I use it.
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tfk is the founder and author of the5krunner, an independent endurance sports technology publication. With 20 years of hands-on testing of GPS watches and wearables, and competing in triathlons at an international age-group level, tfk provides in-depth expert analysis of fitness technology for serious athletes and endurance sport competitors. See the gear tfk uses. ID
