Sports Watch Update November 2021

V2.368 -28 November 2021

OLD CONTENT: the information below is out of date and this post has been refreshed for 2022. It is a follower-only post but you can follow for free.

Recent Highlights and the INBOUND Queue

• EXPECTED: High end, Fitbit (Oct, Wear OS 3 models)
• RELEASED: Apple Watch 7
• RELEASED: Whoop 4.0
• RELEASED: Polar Grit X Pro (Titan),
• RELEASED: Polar Vantage V2 EDITION
• RELEASED: Shimano R9200P and R8100P PMs (although I’m not quite sure why I’m listing it here)
• RELEASED: Fossil Gen 6 (Wear OS 2, 4100)
• EXPECTED next: Garmin Edge 1040 
• EXPECTED 2021 still possible: Garmin Venu 2 Plus (photos are emerging now)
• ? EXPECTED next: Garmin Venu SQ LTE (no intel)
• RELEASED: Amazfit GTR 3 October 2021
• EXPECTED 2021: mioEXP triathlon watch. Possibly on ice
  
• RELEASED: Oct 2021 TicWatch Pro 3 Ultra GPS
• EXPECTED by some but I’m not sure: Garmin Forerunner 655 + Wrist Running Power?
  
• EXISTS/PROBABLE: Garmin Vector AIR, RALLY AIR??
• LEAKED: Garmin Edge 1040, garmin.com leak reported here.
• RUMOURED: Garmin 955 (Leaked) Expected features here. Sources say September 2021. plausible, I favour later
  
• RUMOURED: Garmin 955 LTE! (Leaked) sources say September 2021, I suspect 2022
  
• RUMOURED: Google Pixel Watch (again)
• POSSIBLE: MARQ v2? v1 released circa 13 MAR 2019…a two-year lifecycle could give this soon
• EXPECTED MARCH 2022: Garmin Vivoactive 5 / 5s (rather than Venu 2 & Venu 2s ) https://fccid.io/IPH-04095 / https://fccid.io/IPH-04094
• EXPECTED: Forerunner 255 & 655 (or 245+/645+ /Music). Likely date Q1.2022 (no firm intel)
• EXPECTED: Edge 540 and 840 possibly Q2.2022 (no firm intel)
• EXPECTED: Fenix 7 (In 2022)
• EXPECTED: Apple Watch 8 & Watch 8 Explorer September 2022
• EXPECTED: Apple Watch SE Gen 2 2022
• ANNOUNCED: Huawei Watch GT Runner
• RELEASED: Oppo Watch 2 (Jul 27 2021)
• RELEASED: BKK Vivo 2 (October 2021)
• RELEASED: Xplova X2 (small format bike computer)
• RELEASED Mobvoi Ticwatch E3 (Wear OS w/Snapdragon 4100)
• RELEASED: Samsung Galaxy Watch4  (Wear OS 3, sport and classic variants) 11 Aug
• RELEASED: Sigma Rox 2.0, 4.0, 11.1
• RELEASED: Favero Assioma Duo-shi (although I’m not quite sure why I’m listing it here)
• RELEASED: Coros Vertix 2
• RELEASED: Garmin 945LTE
  
• RELEASED: Forerunner 55
• RELEASED: Wahoo Element Bolt (gen 2 model)
• REL:EASED: Suunto 9 Peak
• RELEASED: Garmin Descent MK2s  (small version)
• RELEASED: Garmin Rally power meter pedals (rs/xc/rk 100/200, dual single, spd, spd-sl, Look/Keo aka Vector 4, up to $1200)
• RELEASED: Polar Ignite 2
• RELEASED Polar Vantage M2
• RELEASED: Garmin Enduro Watch x2
  
• RELEASED: Garmin Venu 2/Venu 2s
  
• RELEASED: Realme Watch 2 and 2 Pro (cheap, proprietary OS)

Monthly Commentary

H2.2021 is quieter than I hoped for with sports devices but we have seen a reasonable flow of the more generic smart watches. Garmin has a limited number of launch slots each year and the earlier ones were taken by Enduro, RALLY, Venu2/2S, FR55, and FR945LTE but none of the possible dates for Q3/4 were used; and Polar provided some excitement with two refreshed models M2 and Ignite 2. The new Wahoo Bolt has livened things up a bit and we need a bit more on the excitement front. Apple has clearly encountered production issues which, in their worst case, may have forced a complete redesign to give what appears to be a minimally improved Watch 6.5 version rather than the visual and battery overhaul I expected. October saw Polar’s big announcement of a new Grit X Pro (Titan) and some updates to the Vantage V2 and Unite.

Garmin Running & Triathlon Tech for 2021

If you analyse previous release cycles, a LOT of Garmin products were due for a refresh in 2021 and will be overdue in 2022. If you look at reality…we will see them in 2022 not 2021

For example, the new Garmin Enduro Watch for Ultra Runners is not even a refreshed 655 but perhaps the last of the Fenix 6 variants. The 655 is still a possible refresh.

The Garmin RALLY pedal power meter line indicates the start of a mini-trend where we will see pedal power meters gain compatibility with the major pedal types/cleat types (MTB), SPD-SL (Road), and Look/KEO.

There is very little recent chatter around the Forerunners 655 & 955. Perhaps there is too much crossover with the small format Forerunner 745 & 945LTE? Perhaps there will never be a 655 if Garmin decides to simplify its sometimes-confusing product range? Or probably the new Enduro has taken the place previously occupied by the 645 as the top running-specific watch.

The 945LTE and 745 are both small format watches. Thus don’t dismiss a medium-format 955 as a genuine replacement to the 945 this year. Nor should you dismiss the possibility of a true mid-market triathlon watch from Garmin (the 745 isn’t that).

The Venu SQ and Venu 2 signal Garmin’s continued intent to take the smartwatch market seriously and Garmin Lily backs that point up further by attacking the small-wristed, female market squarely. These markets are incredibly competitive and Garmin’s sporting edge is eroded bit by bit each year. Apple obviously has a stranglehold on the iOS market for smartwatches and Google/Fitbit may make Garmin’s job ever-harder in the Android space later this year. Nevertheless, Garmin will roll the Vivoactive 5 dice one more time between Sep 2021 and Jan 2022. This will be a make-or-break time for Garmin and a failure to progress against Apple/Fitbit and Samsung in the pure-smart space would mark a slow, long-term turning point for their fortunes.

For all new higher-end iterations from Garmin in 2021 expect to see LTE as an option, perhaps even in the high-end bike computer formats too eg an Edge 1040  😉

Garmin has just about refreshed all their accessories to include BLE and ANT+ support. The most glaring omission is the footpod. Whilst I would like to see a direct STRYD-competitor, it’s more likely that Garmin will introduce wrist-based power SOON and PERHAPS also a new iteration of the RD-POD

Suunto, Polar, Wahoo, Coros & Other Sport-focussed GPS Watches

In 2020 Polar introduced Grit X which builds on the latest generation of Polar features as well as adding in some new ones that increase the Grix X’s suitability for outdoor adventures. Then, Polar refreshed its high-end multisport watch, the Polar Vantage V2 to mixed reviews (I like it). The V2 had new hardware plus all the existing Vantage 1 features topped up with all the new features from the Polar Grit X. Their portfolio was mostly completed this year with the Vantage M2 and highly competent Ignite 2, although October sees some refinement with a Grit X Pro and other minor updates. Next up logically would be a new Unite 2 and then a premium Titanium version of the Vantage V2 (no intel on those). However, an outside bet would be that Google is subsidising/encouraging many companies to re-target the Wear OS market and perhaps Polar has taken that bait and also decided to build on its Wear OS competence from several years ago with the sweet M600? Although a Wear OS 3 watch would be H2.2022 for anyone other than Fitbit/Samsung.

Coros Vertix 2 tries to compete against the Garmin Fenix Pro, whereas their Apex models are sporty-smart hybrids in a similar vein to Polar & Garmin Venu. Compared to Polar, Coros also has well-made hardware, more features but a poorer platform. Thus Coros historically found it harder to justify their pricing as a premium competitor in their chosen segments. That changed with the Coros Pace 2 which is very highly featured, with novel features and at a great price. Again, it’s the platform that lets down the Pace 2 but it still sold well because of the price/feature combination. This enabled Coros to rethink its strategy going forward and it has revamped its distribution but doubled down on the existing platform eg with the nice EvoLab. All of this leads me to guess we will see a refreshed Apex model soon enough (I’d guess 2022 but no intel).

Polar M2 and Coros Pace 2 thus go head-to-head on many levels with each having quite stark advantages over the other. Yet the two are relatively evenly matched as an overall offering and both can sell well compared to Garmins at the same price points…unlike at the higher price levels where most vendors struggle to counter Garmin’s products. The ageing Suunto 5 slots in here as well with some deep discounting making it an interesting alternative.

Suunto 9 Baro/Peak join the fray and tries to compete against Fenix, Vertix 2 and Grit X. It’s hard to see how anything but Garmin Fenix will dominate the higher-priced end of the market. Ultimately the Garmin dominance will stifle the competition as soon as Suunto et al realise they just can’t win unless they are really, really clever. The smaller Suunto 9 Peak should sell well simply because of the form factor however their best long-term prospects lie in the East and in trying to crack more mass-market needs there. I think we could see a Suunto 7 Gen 2 this year but only if the first generation was successful (IDK if it was and I have no intel on Gen 2), that said Google will almost certainly NOT ALLOW a Suunto Gen 2 to run Wear OS 3 until Q3.2022…that’s a long wait unless they produce another Wear OS 2 watch in 2021.

The Wahoo Rival competes against the V2/935/945 as a true sports watch.  Like the V2 it can’t match the Garmins on a feature-for-feature basis, however, Wahoo has some key benefits over Polar because of the loyalty to their brand, the openness of their platform, and their interesting portfolio of products. Expect more software improvements to Rival before Wahoo releases a Gen 2 Rival.

The sporty-smart-fitness watches then sit as uneasy bedfellows at the low/mid-price points, all trying to differentiate themselves from the out-and-out smartwatches made by the smartphone manufacturers (Samsung, Apple, etc). The main differentiator of these products seems to be their claimed sportiness/healthiness. Ultimately an app or two on an Apple Watch will do the same job(s) and therein lies the long-term fate of companies like Polar & Garmin.

Cheaper sporty-fitness watches include the Polar Ignite 2 and its GPSless sibling the Unite. Perhaps you might bundle in the Suunto 3 Fitness to this category too. Premium models here include Garmin Vivoactive/Venu and Suunto 7. I don’t really ‘get’ the Unite/Suunto 3 part of the market but the others all have compelling arguments in their favour. That said they are all competing in a confusing, competitive part of the market and sometimes it’s the one who shouts loudest that is hard to beat…Apple.

2021 sees these brands & products at an interesting juncture.

• Polar has thrown the dice for 2021. There might still be a Unite 2 but their future will probably comprise platform improvements, case variants and new features. Wear OS revisited by Polar? Maybe in H2.2022
• Suunto has more scope to refresh its product line further. Will they boldly push an S7 gen 2? A refreshed Suunto 5 or some variants of the existing one could also be interesting but the market has moved on a lot since its original launch and more than a simple refresh is needed to beat Coros & Polar. That die will be cast in 2022.
• Coros are likely to iterate rather than release new models. They have a conundrum though, the app needs significant work and, with the exception of the Pace 2, Coros must realise that their company strengths are “quality materials” and “features” – their products can sell REALLY WELL if they get the price right. Thus if a next-gen Apex could be $200/£150 cheaper, then it might be a game-changer. At the current price levels, it’s just tickling the toes of the Garmin Venu rather than giving it a stern push
• I can’t see Wahoo releasing another watch in the foreseeable future but as a company, they have a huge range of options open for their progress. I guess the next move is either an iterated Kickr or new Roam – each of which could easily be as late as Q3.2022
• Smaller companies like Sigma, Mio Labs and one or two others may well treat us to more good-value and focussed products in 2021/2022.

From all that, what I see as interesting are a Suunto 7 gen 2 (2022 would fit past product lifecycles); a feature-full & revamped Coros data platform (unlikely); and many more Wahoo RIVAL features like track mode (will take time). None of those is a certainty. In fact, I’d probably bet they don’t happen! Which could make for a boring 2021 unless  you are a Garmin-lover or a Wear OS lover.

Smart Fitness, Wear OS, WatchOS & Similar Smarts

Finally, the Google+Fitbit deal is done. Finally Google has said stuff will happen in 2021 (but it hasn’t)

Finally, the Apple Watch 7 is announced

Although not official, we shall say ‘Bye Bye’ to Fitbit’s FitOS and Wear OS will swell in size, notably because the next generation of Fitbit devices will likely run WearOS. 2021 did see Samsung make a move in Wear OS, which added significant credibility to the longterm future of the platform. Indeed there has already been a quality leak stating that there will be a Samsung Galaxy Watch5 around Aug/September 2022, it looks like Samsung is getting into Apple’s game of annual iterations.

After a near-silent 2020, we shall see a lot of activity elsewhere in Wear OS as (non-Fitbit/Google) companies build on the new generation of SnapDragon processors (4100) with a new WearOS 3.0 – that mostly means Fossil but others too. Fossil is clearing out its Gen 5 stock and has finished introducing some Gen5/LTE variants, probably before the launch of its Gen 6 on 27 September 2021. It will be interesting to see if Oppo/Zepp/RealMe/BKK/Vivo can take over Fossil’s mantle in the Wear OS space, it looks like WearOS is one of their strategic targets and the company is already in talks with Google about expanding the feature set of Wear OS. At the same time some vendors, like Mobvoi, are considering alternatives to Wear OS.

2021 is the year when Google MUST act with a significantly improved Wear OS 3.0, however, the Fitbit acquisition might delay Google’ hardware efforts (Pixel) into Jan 2022. So Can Fossil and Samsung(!) come up with the goods sooner?

Starting this year and crystallising in mid-2022, the *BIG* Wear OS ‘Bounce’  will come from

• Re-purposed Fitbit devices ported to Wear OS
• Accelerated take-up of the new SnapDragon 4100/4100+ processors (eg by Fossil)
• New strategic movers like Oppo, although at least one Oppo watch will skip Wear OS.
• At least one Samsung model will move from Tizen to Wear OS (Watch4). Perhaps ultimately the whole company as Watch5 is pseudo-confirmed for H2.2022
• Casio has just released their first Wear OS watch on G-Shock (Protrek too), there could be more
• There appears to be a bezel-less Google Pixel due for 2021, perhaps branded as a Fitbit by Google
• A significant Wear OS platform update as announced in May

Interestingly, Samsung appears to have exclusive access to Wear OS 3 on its Galaxy Watch4 models, at least for a while. The future of Wear OS appears to be a Google/Fitbit and Samsung duopoly perhaps with Fossil hanging on in the periphery.

Huami (Amazfit/Zepp), Huawei, Realme, Redmi, TicWatch and others will continue in the battle of the budget smartwatches. Several of these have significant sales figures in some Far Eastern markets and some of the products might even be described as increasingly competent. Indeed what we are perhaps seeing right now are the Chinese companies building up significant competencies and sales volumes in their domestic markets before using that strength in other geographic markets.

In case you missed it, there was an Apple Watch 7 in Sep 2021, preceded by watchOS 8 in August.

Bike Computers – Hope or Hopeless?

Garmin is clearly dominant in this sector and Wahoo is clearly the main challenger brand. The jury is firmly OUT on the potential longterm impact of Karoo 2 but it is ‘one of the great hopes’ with a realistic chance of success

Other than an occasionally misplaced FCC filing, Wahoo is very good at keeping quiet, so don’t expect any leaks…just hope quietly.

Apple, Google and maybe “China” will eventually clean out the watch markets but Garmin holds a dominant position with bike computers. Many challengers exist to Garmin’s Edge Series but only Wahoo/Hammerhead(Android) seem to be coherent challengers and they are lagging behind if the number of features is how you judge bike computers. Will Bolt 2/Roam 2 be able to withstand an onslaught from Edge 540/840? It’s an interesting market position to debate as Garmin Edge will NOT pull further ahead either in terms of features or market share as their tech is already well-advanced and their market position too dominant. Catching up in each of those respects is MUCH easier than pulling further ahead. Interestingly we may next see an Edge 1040 (leak first reported here) which surprises me as I’m not sure what it can bring to the party in terms of new capabilities, other than LTE, Solar and a new GNSS chipset….well apart from those!!

How difficult is it for smaller companies to catch or even beat Garmin at cycling? Read this: How to Beat a Garmin Edge. The answer is ‘VERY‘. If there is ever some new product to beat Garmin it will likely be another device based on Android. Why?… Answer: “apps” and a shorter, easier product development cycle, which sounds a bit like the Karoo!! Go figure.

I suspect that Garmin doesn’t care too much about lower price points, so Bryton, Sigma, Lezyne, CatEye, Polar and other smaller bike computer companies can fight out the price-per-feature battle in that very messy and less profitable arena. One hopeful rumour even suggested that Polar might release a bike computer in late 2021 but I think that ship has sailed especially considering Polar’s reluctance to support ANT+ on their watches (their newer chest straps DO support ANT+)

There are good bike computers like Stages, Sigma ROX and the high-end Bryton models but all of them, in my opinion, lack that certain ‘je ne sais quoi‘ that could propel them to the same levels as Wahoo. And when you contemplate that the ever-successful Wahoo BOLT prospered even past its 4th birthday, then you have to conclude that it’s not high technology that bike riders necessarily want. Maybe it’s the ‘just works’ factor or the platform or the brand image.

Garmin also doesn’t seem to care too much about MTB, gravel or e-bike specific models. Maybe they know something that we don’t? (A: probably!). Maybe the SPD Rally pedals are the first indication that Garmin will take off-road more seriously. (Don’t forget, cargo biking, electric bikes and many other bike markets are growing and might be attractive to Garmin)

Lists of All GPS Sports Watches & Bike Computers

This is my opinion of current & future devices across the GPS running/cycling market. Updates to this will be issued as and when information emerges which may include rumours, although please note that any information provided to me under NDA by manufacturers will *NOT* appear here and I won’t talk about it as I always honour agreements I make either written or verbal. So there will be a few more surprises over and above all of this 😉 I have at least a reasonable level of confidence that watches predicted here for the future are broadly correct – timings and functionality may NOT be what I expect. Please let me know of errors or omissions. At the end of the table is a discussion about current issues and sports tech trends. Thank you. Enjoy.

Garmin – Current and Rumoured Models

🔴 = Discontinued or effectively discontinued and replaced

🔵 = Expected Future Model or ‘very recent’.

Polar, Suunto, Wahoo, Fitbit, Apple, etc – Current and Rumoured Models

Category Links to either a review, opinion article or your local AmazonLinkComments

Notes

• There are many other low-priced brands, several of which are visual rip-offs of the main brands’ models.
• Some low-priced brands include PARNERME, UWEAR, GoLife, GooPhone, Reabeam, FitCare, iGPSport, Xoss
• There are probably also some Kickstarter and Indegogo type new models planned. My broad opinion is that if this is the first sports watch from a company with no track record then you will lose your money or, at best, receive a pile of junk. Spend a little bit extra and instead get a real product now.
• If you’ve found a brand that I’ve not listed above and the price looks too good to be true…there’s probably a reason. Just go for the brands above…eg Lezyne & Bryton offer cheap and perfectly good bike computers that support complex usage.

What have I missed? Are there others?

Note: information that has become available about accessories is NOT included here as there are too many of them to keep up-to-date with. There are also too many Power Meter variants for me to keep track of. I have more than a passing interest in PMs for triathlon disciplines but I don’t keep an eye on the whole market – the document I keep up-to-date on PM is my guide to the best power meter. I’m generally going to exclude wrist bands from the lists above, like the Vivokids v2, although some bands have sneaked in there already.

Lists of all Firmware Updates

• Suunto Spartan is here: link to Suunto.com
• Suunto 5 is here: link to Suunto.com
• Suunto 7: is here: link to Suunto.com
• Suunto 9 is here: link to Suunto.com
• Suunto 3 is here: link to Suunto.com
• Polar updates are here: link to Polar.com
• Garmin updates are here: link to gpsinformation.net
• Elemnt Updates are here: link to wahoofitness.com
• Fitbit updates are here: link to Fitbit.com
• Hammerhead Karoo is here: link to Hammerhead.io
• Lezyne is here: link to Lezyne.com
• WatchOS 5 is here: link to Apple.com
• WatchOS 6 is here: link to Apple.com
• WatchOS 7 is here: link to Apple.com
• Stages DASH is here: stagesdash.com
• Sigma Rox 12 here: sigmasport.com
• Mio Cyclo: mio.com
• Coros: link to Coros.com
• Bryton: Facebook page for announcements

Please let me know of any I’ve missed

Also useful for checking compatibility and new ANT+ devices. VERY occasionally you might see a special ‘leak’ appear here first by accident.

• thisisant.com
• ANT+ Specification updates here: thisisant.com

Subscriber-Only Content

The remainder of this update is subscriber-only content and comprises a discussion of the trends in emerging technology and new technology – for example covering payments, GPS, OHR, Safety, Mapping and much more.

Recommended Reading: Endurance Technology Trends

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